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2015 Precious Metals Forecast Survey Results

Monday, January 04, 2016

The London Bullion Market Association is delighted to congratulate the winning analysts in the 2015 Precious Metals Forecast (see table below). The aim of the LBMA Forecast is to predict the average, high and low price for the year ahead in each metal as accurately as possible. The prediction closest to the average price wins (based on the average $ daily LBMA pm prices). In the event of a tie the forecast range is taken into account. The LBMA is grateful to Metalor for its generous donation of the 1 oz gold bars which will be awarded to the 2015 winning analysts in each of the four precious metal categories.

 

2015 LBMA Forecast Winners

Metal

Actual average

1 st1st half of Jan 2015 (a)

Average

Analysts’

Forecast 2015

Actual 2015 Average Price

Winning Forecast

2015 Winning Analyst

Company

Gold

$1,218

$1,211

$1,160

$1,160

Bernard

Dahdah

Natixis

Silver

$16.41

$16.76

$15.68

$15.50

Rene Hochreiter

Sieberana Research (Pty) Ltd

Platinum

$1,225

$1,294

$1,053

$1,098

Glyn Stevens

INTL FCStone Ltd

Palladium

$796.20

$838.40

$691.63

$738.00

Glyn Stevens

INTL FCStone Ltd

(a)     2nd 2nd Jan to 15 Jan 2015 inclusive.

 

Many thanks to all the forecast contributors.  Congratulations to the winning analysts, Bernard Dahdah (gold), Rene Hochreiterl (silver), and Glyn Stevens for both top prizes for platinum and palladium.

Congratulations to the winning analysts, Bernard Dahdah who won first prize for gold, Rene Hochreiter for silver, and particularly to Glyn Stevens who picked up the top prizes for both platinum and palladium. They will each receive a 1 oz gold bar, which have been kindly donated by Metalor.

It certainly paid to be bearish with the prices of all four metals on the slide during 2015. Bernard was the most impressive in winning the gold prize with a winning forecast of $1,160 which was spot on the money, matching the actual average for the year. The pendulum began to swing in Bernard’s favour in recent weeks as both Suki Cooper and Rhona O’Connell had been leading the pack until the early part of December, but the weakening gold price in December worked to his advantage.

As with last year the silver forecast again produced the tightest finish with two analysts (Rene Hochreiter and Bernard Dahdah) tied for first place with a forecast of $15.50 against an actual average price for the year of $15.68. However, Rene, picked up the winning prize on account of predicting a narrower forecast range of $6 to Bernard’s $8. Philip Klapwijk finished a narrow third with his forecast of $15.95. Snatching this latest prize helps move Rene to joint top of the all time leader board, joining Philip Klapwijk who each now have bagged six first prizes, one ahead of Ross Norman.

Out on his own to claim the prizes for both platinum and palladium was Glyn Stevens who could be called the winner several weeks ago. Glyn was the most bearish of all the analysts with his forecasts for both metals and as such had plenty to spare over his rivals, even if the actual average prices outturned even lower than his grim predictions. Nevertheless, it was an impressive performance from Glyn who took first prize for Platinum with a forecast of $1,098 against an actual average price for the year of $1,053 as well as the platinum prize with his forecast of $738 against an actual average price of $691.63. What makes Glyn’s performance even more impressive is that he only enters forecasts for the two PGM metals rather than all four. David Jollie finished runner up for platinum with his forecast of $1,245 and Bernard Dahdah rounded off an excellent round of forecasting by finishing runner up for palladium with his forecast of $775.

Many thanks to all the forecast contributors and Metalor for the generous donation of the winning prizes. The results of the 2016 Precious Metals Forecast Survey will be published at the end of January, 2016.

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