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Winners of the LBMA’s 2016 Precious Metals Forecast Survey

Friday, January 06, 2017

The London Bullion Market Association is delighted to announce the results of its 2016 Precious Metals Forecast Survey. The Survey attracts the top analysts from the international precious metals market.

The objective is to forecast as accurately as possible the average, high and low price range of the four main precious metals for the year ahead. The analyst who is closest to the average price in 2016 wins (based on the average $ daily LBMA pm prices). In the event of a tie, the forecast range is taken into account.


2016 LBMA Forecast Winners

Metal Actual
Average
1st half Jan 2016(a)
Average
Analysts’
2016
Forecast
Actual
2016
Average
Price
Winning
Forecast
2016
Winning
Analyst
Company
Gold $1,091 $1,103 $1,251 $1,225 Joni Teves UBS
Silver $13.98 $14.74 $17.14 $17.20 Joni Teves UBS
Platinum $864 $911 $987 $980 George Coles Metals Focus
Palladium $503.78 $568 $613.72 $610 Bernard Dahdah Natixis

(a) 4th to 14th January, 2016 inclusive.

For the 2016 Survey, analysts had on average forecast only modest price increases for all four metals during 2016. However, all of them performed much better in 2016 than analysts had expected, with gold ending the year 13% above analysts’ average forecast, silver +16%, and both platinum and palladium +8%. Against this background, clearly those analysts who had adopted a bullish outlook would be putting themselves into contention for the coveted prizes. Congratulations therefore go to the winning analysts, particularly to Joni Teves who managed to scoop two prizes, with winning forecasts for both gold and silver. George Coles took the prize for platinum and Bernard Dahdah claimed the winning forecast for palladium. Warm congratulations to all three analysts, who will each receive a 1 oz gold bar, which this year have been kindly donated by PAMP.

Joni adopted the most bullish outlook for both gold and silver, and this approach meant that she was comfortably ahead of her nearest rivals despite the fallback in the gold and silver price in the second half of the year. For gold, she scooped the prize with a forecast of $1,225, just 2% off the actual average for the year of $1,251. Jim Steel took the runner-up spot with his forecast of $1,205 and Thorsten Proettel took third place with his forecast of $1,185.

Joni also scooped the prize for silver, again by taking the most bullish position of all the analysts, with a forecast of $17.20, impressively a mere 6 cents off the actual average price for the year of $17.14. In second spot, was Dmitriy Kolomytsyn with his forecast of $16.25, and on his coat tails to claim third prize was William Adams with his forecast of $16.20.

Taking the first prize for platinum was George Coles with his forecast of $980, just $7 off the actual average price of $987. Daniel Briesemann and Suki Cooper, were close behind with their respective forecasts of $1,000 and $978. However, Suki just edged it to claim second with Daniel taking third.

Winning the first prize in the palladium category was Bernard Dahdah, with his forecast of $610, less than $4 off the actual average price of $613.72. This followed Bernard claiming first prize for gold in last year’s competition, so well done to Bernard. There was a photo finish for second place, with both Junlu Liang and Bart Melek tied with their forecast of $625. However, after taking into account their forecast ranges it was Junlu who claimed second spot by virtue of a narrower forecast range, leaving Bart in third spot.

Many thanks to all the forecast contributors and PAMP for the generous donation of the winning prizes.

The results of the 2017 Precious Metals Forecast Survey will be published at the end of January, 2017.

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