2017 Precious Metals Forecast Survey Winners
Tuesday, January 09, 2018
The London Bullion Market Association is delighted to announce the results of its 2017 Precious Metals Forecast Survey. The Survey attracts the top analysts from the international precious metals market.
The objective is to forecast as accurately as possible the average, high and low price range of the four main precious metals for the year ahead. The analyst who is closest to the average price for the year ahead wins (based on the average $ daily LBMA pm prices). In the event of a tie, the forecast range is taken into account.
2017 LBMA Forecast Winners
1st half Jan 2017(a)
|Gold||$1,181||$1,244||$1,257||$1,256||Bart Melek||TD Securities|
|Silver||$16.59||$17.77||$17.05||$17.10||Tom Kendall||ICBC Standard Bank|
|Palladium||$744.3||$762||$868.96||$850||William Adams||Metal Bulletin Ltd|
(a) 3rd to 16th January, 2017 inclusive.
“There’s gold in them thar hills”
Congratulations go to the four winning analysts, Gold – Bart Melek (TD Securities) Silver – Tom Kendall (ICBC Standard Bank) , Platinum – Glyn Stevens (Independent) and Palladium William Adams (Metal Bulletin Ltd). They each receive a prize of a 1 oz gold bar, kindly donated by PAMP.
In the 2017 Survey, analysts adopted a bullish outlook for all four metals. Compared to the price in the first half of January 2017, they had forecast a 5.3% increase in the gold price to $1,244 and whilst they got the price direction correct the actual average outturned 1% above their expectations at $1,257.15.
Analysts’ had been most bullish about the silver price, forecasting a 7.1% increase to $17.77, and whilst they again got the price direction right, their forecast proved slightly optimistic with the average price outturning at $17.05, representing a more modest 2.7% increase.
Analysts’ had forecast an increase of 4.9% in the price of platinum to $1,014 but unfortunately this time they got the price direction wrong as the average price in 2017 fell by 2% to $948.49.
Analysts’ had predicted a modest increase of 2.4% in the palladium price, and whilst they got the price direction correct their forecast of $762 proved pessimistic as palladium ended the year as the best performing of the four metals, posting an impressive a 16.7% increase to $868.96.
In a tight finish, Bart Melek held of the challenges with his forecast of $1,256, just $1.15 below the actual average price. In a close second was Ross Strachan (Thomson Reuters, GFMS) with his forecast of $1,259 and in third was Bhargava Vaidya (B.N Vaidya & Associates) with $1,260.
For silver, Tom Kendall secured first prize with his forecast of $17.10, an impressive performance being just five cents off the average price of $17.05. However, it was a very close call as Eddie Nagao (Sumitomo Corporation) also forecast the same price but Tom snatched victory in a tight photo finish courtesy of a narrower forecast range. In third place, to bag his second third place finish was Bhargava Vaidya with his forecast of $17.25.
It paid to take a bearish outlook for platinum, and Glyn Stevens was one of the few who did, and he scooped first prize courtesy of his forecast of $935, $13.49 below the actual average price. Eddie Nagao took his second runners up spot with his forecast of $928. Bart Melek, supplementing his first prize for gold, took third with his forecast of $984.
Scooping the first prize was William Adams with his forecast of $850, $18.96 below the actual average price. Taking second place was Thorsten Proettel (LBBW) with his forecast of $840 and in third was Ross Norman (Sharps Pixley) with his forecast of $828.
Last but not least.......
Many thanks to all the forecast contributors and PAMP for the generous donation of the winning prizes.
The results of the 2018 Precious Metals Forecast Survey will be published at the end of January, 2018.