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LBMA 2014 Precious Metals Forecast Survey Results

Tuesday, January 06, 2015

The London Bullion Market Association is delighted to congratulate the winning analysts in the 2014 Precious Metals Forecast (see table below). The aim of the LBMA Forecast is to predict the average, high and low price for the year ahead in each metal as accurately as possible. The prediction closest to the average price wins (based on the average $ daily pm fixing price). In the event of a tie the forecast range is taken into account. The LBMA is grateful to PAMP SA for its generous donation of the 1 oz gold bars which will be awarded to the 2014 winning analysts in each of the four precious metal categories.

 

2014 LBMA Forecast Winners

Metal

Actual 2013 Average

Actual average

1 st week Jan 2014(a)

Average

Analysts’

Forecast 2014

Actual 2014 Average

Winning Forecast

2014 Winning Analyst

Company

Gold

$1,411

$1,230

$1,219

$1,267

$1,262

Frederic

Panizzutti

MKS Switzerland S.A.

Silver

$23.79

$19.87

$19.95

$19.08

$19.00

Suki Cooper / Rhona O'Connell

Barclays / Thomson Reuters

Platinum

$1,487

$1,406

$1,490

$1,385

$1,369

Philip Klapwijk

Precious Metals Insights Limited

Palladium

$725.29

$732.00

$774.81

$802.95

$805.00

Eddie Nagao

Sumitomo Corporation

(a)     2nd Jan to 9 Jan 2014 inclusive.

 

Many thanks to all the forecast contributors.  Congratulations to the winning analysts, Frederic Panizzutti (gold), Suki Cooper and Rhona O’Connell (who both tie for silver), Philip Klapwijk (platinum) and Eddie Nagao (palladium).

Frederic won the gold prize with a winning forecast of $1,262 against an actual average for the year of $1,267. This represents the fourth time that he has claimed first prize in one of the four metal categories. There was a two way tie for second place with both William Adams and Peter Fertig predicting an average price of $1,260. In such circumstances their forecast ranges are taken into account and William grabbed second place with Peter in third.

The silver forecast produced the tightest finish with four analysts (Robin Bahr, Suki Cooper, Sonia Hellwig and Rhona O’Connell) all tied for first place with a forecast of $19.00 against an actual average price for the year of $19.08. Taking into account their forecast ranges the contest was narrowed down to two, Suki and Rhona, who again tied on account of having predicted the same forecast range. In the circumstances the pair of them will both receive a 1oz gold bar. Robin claimed third place.

Philip Klapwijk secured first prize for his platinum forecast of $1,369, just over $15 off the actual average price for the year of $1,385. This was Philip’s sixth first prize, which makes him the most successful analyst, just ahead of Ross Norman and Rene Hochreiter who have each won five times. Tom Kendall finished second with his forecast of $1,430 and Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach finishing third with a forecast of $1,440.

It was fitting that Eddie Nagao, picked up the palladium prize having finished runner up last year in three categories (gold, silver and palladium). His forecast of $805 was also the most impressive, being just 0.25% off the actual average for 2014 of $802.95. Narrowly losing out for the first prize was Jonathan Butler with a forecast of $800 followed closely by Ross Norman in third place with a forecast of $795.

Many thanks to all the forecast contributors. The LBMA is grateful to PAMP SA for its generous donation of the five 1 oz gold bars which will be awarded to the 2014 winning analysts in each of the precious metal categories.

Press Release
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