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LBMA Forecast Winners 2013

Thursday, January 02, 2014

The London Bullion Market Association is delighted to congratulate the winning analysts in the 2013 Precious Metals Forecast. The range and average price predictions for the 2014 Precious Metals Survey were published separately, along with the full survey, including the commentaries.

The aim of the LBMA Forecast is to predict the average, high and low price for the year ahead in each metal as accurately as possible. The prediction closest to the average price wins (based on the average $ daily pm fixing price). In the event of a tie the forecast range is taken into account. The LBMA is grateful to MetalorTechnologies SA for its generous donation of four 1 oz gold bars which will be awarded to the 2013 winning analysts in each of the four precious metal categories.

 

2013 LBMA Forecast Winners

Metal

Actual 2012 Average

Actual average

1st week Jan 2013(a)

Average

Analysts’

Forecast 2013

Actual 2013 Average

Winning Forecast

2013 Winning Analyst

Company

Gold

$1,669

$1,665

$1,753

$1,411

$1,600

René

Hochreiter

Allan Hochreiter (Pty) Ltd

Silver

$31.15

$30.36

$33.21

$23.79

$27.00

René

Hochreiter

Allan Hochreiter (Pty) Ltd

Platinum

$1,552

$1,575

$1,682

$1,487

$1,538

Glyn Stevens

INTL Commodities

Palladium

$644.33

$689.64

$744.03

$725.29

$725.00

Tom Kendall

Credit Suisse

(a)     2nd Jan to 10th Jan 2013 inclusive.

 

Many thanks to all the forecast contributors.  Once again, forecasters were bullish on the prospects of all four metals during 2013 but most were caught out as the average price of gold (-15%), silver (-22%) and platinum     (-5.5%) were all lower than prices in the opening week of 2013.  So this year it clearly paid dividends to take a more pessimistic view. 

 

Congratulations to the four winning analysts.  The most impressive forecast predictions were by Rene Hochreiter who scooped prizes for both gold and silver, following up the winning forecast for gold in last year’s survey. Glyn Stevens claimed the prize for platinum, with Tom Kendall picked up the winning prize for palladium with the most impressive price prediction out of all four categories with a forecast price that was just 29 cents off the actual average price. This followed Tom winning the prize for platinum in the 2012 forecast. The most unlucky analyst in this year's survey was undoubtedly Eddie Nagao, who finished runner up in three categories (gold, silver and palladium). Eddie actually forecast the same price as Tom for palladium but lost out in the tie break by virtue of forecasting a wider price range. So deep felt commiserations must go to Eddie for such a sterling effort. For further information please contact Aelred Connelly on Tel. 020 7796 3067 or Fax. 020 7283 0030

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