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Winners of LBMA's 2019 Precious Metals Forecast Survey

Thursday, January 09, 2020

LBMA is delighted to announce the results of its 2019 Precious Metals Forecast Survey. In January 2019 analysts provided their forecasts for what they thought the average price in 2019 would be for each of the four metals (gold, silver, platinum and palladium).

1 oz gold bars kindly donated by PAMP are the reward for the analyst in each of the four metal categories whose forecast is closest to the actual average price in 2019. In the event of a tie, we take into account the forecast range.

Congratulations to the winning analysts and commiserations to the runners up.

Metal Actual
Average
1st half Jan 2019(a)
Average
Analysts’
2019
Forecast
Actual
2019
Average
Price
Winning
Forecast
2019
Winning
Analyst
Company
Gold $1,288.85 $1,311.71 $1,392.6 $1,365 Rene Hochreiter / Rhona O'Connell Noah Capital Markets / INTLFC Stone
Silver $15.63 $16.28 $16.20 $16.20 Bernard Dahdah Natixis
Platinum $809.5 $850.71 $862.9 $855 Frederic Panizzutti / Bernard Dahdah MKS PAMP / Natixis
Palladium $1,308.4 $1,267.68 $1,536.74 $1,505 Ross Norman Independent

(a) 2nd -15 January 2019 inclusive (based on the pm LBMA Gold Price).

GOLD - 2019 Actual Average Price $1,392.60
Analysts had been relatively bullish for gold in 2019 but their average forecast still fell $80 short of the actual average price for the year of $1,392.6. Not surprising therefore that the most bullish analysts battled out the finish. For first prize two analysts Rene Hochreiter (Noah Capital Markets/Sieberana Research Pty Ltd) and Rhona O’Connell (INTL FCStone) could not be split with their forecast of $1,365. Accordingly they both win a 1 oz gold prize as joint winners.

For Rene this represented his seventh winning prize which puts him alongside Ross Norman with the highest number of first place finishes.
 
Breathing down their necks in third place, closely following up on his second place finish in the 2018 Survey was Hans-Guenter Ritter (Heraeus) with his forecast of $1,355.

SILVER - 2019 Actual Average Price $16.20
The actual average price out turned at $16.20 not far off the $16.28 which analysts had on average forecast. Out in front was Bernard Dahdah (Natixis) whose forecast was spot on the money at $16.20, which was certainly impressive forecasting. Stealing second place was James Steel (HSBC) just seven cents away with his forecast of $16.27. In third spot was Matthew Turner with a forecast of £16.10. It was fitting to see Bernard scoop first prize here as he narrowly missed out last year by 10 cents to finish runner-up.

PLATINUM - 2019 Actual Average Price $862.90
Of the prospects for the four metals in 2019 analysts had been most bullish about platinum with a forecast of $850.71 against an actual price of $862.9 so they were not far off. In one of the tightest ever finishes two analysts, Frederic Panizzutti (MKS PAMP Group) and Bernard Dahdah, could not be separated. With the same forecast of $855 and the same forecast spread of $150 a dead heat was the only fair outcome and so they both receive a 1 oz gold bar. In a close call for third place was Suki Cooper (Standard Chartered) with her forecast of $874.

PALLADIUM - 2019 Actual Average Price $1,536.74
Surprisingly, analysts took a bearish view for the prospects of palladium in 2019, forecasting prices to fall 3.1% to an average price of just $1,267.68. How wrong they were with palladium ending the best performing metal ending the year at $1,920 nearly $700 up on the year. With the average price in 2019 of $1,536.74 the finish was dominated by those analysts who had adopted a bullish forecast. The most bullish of all was Ross Norman (independent) with his forecast of $1,505 just $30 off the actual average. This win represented Ross's seventh first prize which puts him alongside Rene with the highest number of first place finishes. It was fitting therefore that second place should be no other than Rene with his forecast of $1,418 followed closely by William Adams (Fastmarkets) in third place with his prediction of $1,410.

 
 
 
1 oz Gold Bar Prizes
Congratulations to all four winners who will each receive a 1oz gold bar, kindly donated by PAMP.

Watch out for the 2020 Precious Metals Survey which will be published towards the end of January.
 
For further information please contact:
Aelred Connelly
PR Officer
Tel: +44 (0)20 7796 3067

 

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