In mid-January 2020, analysts provided their forecasts for what they thought the average price in 2020 would be for each of the four metals (gold, silver, platinum and palladium).
Four 1 oz gold bars kindly donated by MKS PAMP GROUP are the reward for the analyst in each of the four metal categories whose forecast is closest to the actual average price in 2020. In the event of a tie, we take into account the analysts' forecast ranges, with the one with the range closest to the actual range during 2020 taking precedence.
Congratulations to the winning analysts and commiserations to the runners-up.
| Metal | Actual Average 1st Half Jan 2020a | Average Analysts' 2020 Forecast | Actual 2020 Average Price | Winning Forecast | 2020 Winning Analyst | Company |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $1,554.2 | $1,558.8 | $1,769.59 | $1,755 | Ross Norman | Independent Consultant |
| Silver | $18.08 | $18.21 | $20.55 | $19.25 | Ross Norman | Independent Consultant |
| Platinum | $973.6 | $1,005.1 | $882.63 | $880 | Kieran Clancy | Capital Economics |
| Palladium | $2,065.2 | $2,116 | $2,192.54 | $2,200 | Zhexing Wang | Bank of China |
(a) 2nd -14 January 2020 inclusive (based on the pm LBMA Gold Price).
GOLD - 2020 Actual Average Price $1,769.59
Analysts were forecasting the gold price to be $1,558.8, 12% up on the average price in 2019, but their average forecast undershot the actual price ($1,769.59) by more than $200. It's not surprising therefore that the most bullish analysts featured in the first three places with Ross Norman, Independent Consultant taking the first place prize with his forecast of $1,755, just $14 shy of the actual price.
Taking second place was Rene Hochreiter (Noah Capital Markets/Sieberana Research Pty Ltd) with his forecast of $1,670 followed in third by Frederic Panizzutti (MKS PAMP GROUP) with his forecast of $1,636. All three are worthy of a special mention as they all secured first place finishes in last year's Survey.
SILVER - 2020 Actual Average Price $20.55
Analysts had forecast that the silver price would average $18.21 in 2020, a rather bullish forecast compared to the actual average in 2019 of $16.2. However, the actual average price out turned at $20.55, and so again it paid to be at the bullish end of the spectrum.
In a photo finish with just five cents separating the first three, Ross Norman snatched first place with his forecast of $19.25. This represents Ross's ninth first place finish since the Survey began, so congratulations to him for such an impressive haul.
Commiserations must go to the two runners up, particularly Bhargava Vaidya (B.N. Vaidya & Associates) who was just one cent behind with his forecast of $19.24. With his second top three finish in the 2020 Survey in third spot was Rene Hochreiter a whisker away with his forecast of $19.20.
PLATINUM - 2020 Actual Average Price $882.63
Analysts had forecast a bullish outlook for platinum prices in 2020 with an average forecast of $1,005.1 compared to the actual average price in 2019 of $862.9. However, the actual average price in 2020 was $882.63, just over $90 below its price in the first half of 2020.
Taking first place was Kieran Clancy (Capital Economics) with his forecast of $880, which was less than $3 from the actual average. So congratulations to Kieran for such an impressive prediction.
Not lurking far behind in second place was Hans-Guenter Ritter (Heraeus) with his forecast of $875 and in third place was Daniel Briesemann (Commerzbank AG) with his forecast of $900.
PALLADIUM - 2020 Actual Average Price $2,192.54
In the first half of January 2020 palladium prices hit a succession of record highs to an average price of $2,065.2. Analysts forecast average prices for 2020 to be just $50 higher at $2,116. The actual average price for the year was $2,192.54 and three analysts with a more bullish outlook fought out the tightest of finishes. In a three way tie for first place all three forecast that prices would be $2,200 just $7 away from the actual price.
They could only be separated by comparing their high and low ranges against the actual high and low for 2020. Snatching first prize was Zhexing Wang (Bank of China) by virtue of his low/high ranges of $1,610 and $2,500 which were closest to the actual low/high range of $1,557 and $2,781.
Desperately unlucky in second and third place were Joni Teves (UBS Limited) and Neil Meader (Metals Focus), and our commiserations go out to them both for missing out by the finest of margins.
1 oz Gold Bar Prizes
Congratulations to all the winners who will each receive a 1oz gold bar, kindly donated by MKS PAMP GROUP.
Watch out for analysts' forecasts in the 2021 Precious Metals Survey which will be published towards the end of January.
For further information please contact:
Aelred Connelly
PR Officer
Aelred.connelly@lbma.org.uk