In early January, LBMA published the results of its 2021 Annual Precious Metals Forecast Survey. Four 1oz gold bars kindly donated by MKS PAMP GROUP were awarded to the analyst in each of the four metal categories whose forecast was closest to the actual average price in 2021. Congratulations to the winning analysts and commiserations to the runners-up.
Au 2021 Actual Average Price: $1,798.6
In early January 2021, analysts forecast that the average gold price in 2021 would be $1,973.80, 11.5% up on the average price in 2020, but their average forecast proved bullish at more than $175 above the actual price of $1,798.60. It’s not surprising that the finish was fought out between analysts who had adopted a bearish outlook. Finishing top of the tree was Caroline Bain (Chief Commodities Economist, Capital Economics) who snatched the first place prize with her forecast of $1,805, just over $6 shy of the actual price.
Taking second place was Edward Meir (ED&F Capital Markets) with his forecast of $1,815, followed in third place by Frank Scallenberger (LBBW) with his forecast of $1,821.
Caroline Bain (Chief Commodities Economist, Capital Economics)
Ag 2021 Actual Average Price: $25.14
Analysts forecasted that the silver price would average $28.50 in 2021, a rather bullish outlook given that the actual price in 2021 turned out more than $3 lower. Peter Fertig (Owner and Director, QCR Quantitative Commodity Research Limited) took first place with his forecast of $24.90, just 24 cents off the actual price of $25.14.
The runner-up was Jim Steel (HSBC Securities (USA) Inc) with his forecast of $25.50 and in third spot was Ventakraman S (Eventell Global Advisory Pvt Ltd) with his prediction of $25.65.
Peter Fertig (Owner and Director, QCR Quantitative Commodity Research Limited)
Pt 2021 Actual Average Price: $1,090.2
Analysts forecasted a bullish outlook for platinum prices in 2021 with an average forecast of $1,131.50 – significantly higher than the actual average price in 2020 of $882.6. Although their forecasts were approximately $40 off the actual price of $1,090, they were at least correct in terms of the direction of travel.
Taking first place was Suki Cooper (Executive Director, Precious Metals Research Analyst, Standard Chartered) with her forecast of $1,081 – impressive crystal ball gazing as it was just $9 off the actual price.
A whisker away in second place was Pearson Mururi (Afriforesight) with his forecast of $1,078 and in third place was Robin Bahr (Robin Bahr Metals Consulting) with his forecast of $1,075.
Suki Cooper (Executive Director, Precious Metals Research Analyst, Standard Chartered)
Pd 2021 Actual Average Price: $2,398.3
Analysts had forecasted that palladium prices in 2021 would average $2,439.10, compared to an actual average price in 2020 of $2,192.50. The actual average price for the year was $2,398.30, so their bullish outlook proved accurate even if somewhat overly optimistic. In first place was Pearson Mururi (Head of Precious Metals and Related Commodities, Afriforesight) with his forecast of $2,417.
In second place was Georgette Boele (ABN Amro) with her forecast of $2,437 and taking third spot was Philip Klapwijk (Precious Metals Insights Ltd) with his forecast of $2,440.
Pearson Mururi (Head of Precious Metals and Related Commodities, Afriforesight)
(a) Analysts were required to submit their forecasts by Thursday, 14 January 2021. All prices in the table relate to PM precious metals prices.
