Each year, the Investment Session is one of the most closely watched moments of the LBMA/LPPM Global Precious Metals Conference – and 2025 was no exception.
With gold prices breaking records, portfolio behaviour shifting, and market structure evolving at speed, this year’s discussion offered a timely snapshot of how leading investors, traders, and strategists are interpreting one of the strongest bull markets in precious metals history.
Across the discussion, a picture was painted of a market entering a new structural phase rather than a passing cycle.
Moderated by John Reade (Chief Market Strategist, World Gold Council), the session brought together distinct perspectives from the following panellists:
- Saad Rahim (Chief Economist, Trafigura)
- Amir Ravan (Senior Portfolio Manager - Commodities, Jain Global, speaking in a personal capacity)
- Wayne Gordon (Managing Director, Chief Investment Office, UBS)
Consensus on Gold: A Bull Market Built on Multiple Drivers
In a rare moment of unanimous agreement, all three panellists opened the session by declaring themselves bullish on gold for the next 12 months, and for reasons that go far beyond price momentum.
Unlike previous cycles, today’s rally is not anchored in a single macro force. All panellists noted multiple factors including:
• Gold as a hedge against geopolitical fragmentation;
• A response to fiscal dominance and rising debt burdens; or
• As insurance against persistent inflation, dollar volatility, or a fraying global order.
Importantly, none of these drivers appear close to easing. As Wayne observed, UBS has upgraded its gold price forecast six times this year and has seen gold holdings in client portfolios double, with participation nearly tripling. Even long-term private clients – including intergenerational family offices – are increasing their physical allocations, often in place of fixed income.
Feedback from the panellists all confirmed that their clients wished they had allocated more to gold during 2025, which led John to discuss forecasting and whether forecasts are helpful. The consensus was that the value of forecasting was in understanding the trends and conditions of the market, rather than the actual point number. Saad explained that he would look at the current price levels, review the prevailing conditions, and then decide how high it could go.
Feedback from the panellists all confirmed that their clients wished they had allocated more to gold during 2025
Dislocations, Liquidity and the New Market Structure
While investment demand has been strong, market structure itself has fundamentally shifted. Amir highlighted the breakdown in global connectivity, citing diminished liquidity, wider pricing, and the erosion of traditional arbitrage channels such as the EFP. Highfrequency market makers now dominate order books, creating shallow liquidity and sharper intraday volatility.
This changing ecosystem is not only altering how hedge funds express positions; it is also reshaping market psychology. As John noted, the migration of capital from futures to ETFs – and increasingly from ETFs into allocated physical – reflects a renewed interest in ownership certainty (especially for physical vaulted gold), not purely in price exposure.
Meanwhile, physical dislocations, including tariff-driven pricing divergences, have created fresh incentives for commodity traders. Trafigura, for example, is investing in expanding its physical gold team, linking this directly to the opportunities emerging from structural fragmentation. This market dislocation has changed how clients ‘trade’ gold. Before, they would look at futures as a way of participating in the market. However, over the course of 2025, this has shifted to ETFs as well as physical gold.
The Bear Case: What Could Stop Gold?
When asked to articulate the bear case, panellists offered few or limited arguments – itself a telling sign of current sentiment. Nevertheless, several risks emerged:
A more hawkish Federal Reserve
Historically, the Fed has ended gold bull markets. A sharp reversal toward higher real rates remains the clearest threat – though panellists saw this as unlikely given the scale of US debt servicing costs.
A deep equity sell-off
While gold is a hedge, it is not immune to liquidity events. A disorderly correction could trigger short-term selling as investors raise cash – though historically gold recovers faster than risk assets.
Productivity breakthroughs (AI, robotics, energy)
John and Saad both raised the intriguing possibility that genuine productivity gains from AI, robotics, the Trump Administration’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ or cheaper power (namely fusion power) could drive strong economic growth and deliver a deflationary shock, which would bring down the price of gold. However, all panellists thought this was unlikely for the next few years.
When asked to articulate the bear case, panellists offered few or limited arguments – itself a telling sign of current sentiment
Beyond Gold: Platinum Strength, Silver Potential, and the PGM Tariff Question
Pressed for their strongest conviction trade, the panel aligned once again – this time around platinum. Amir argued forcefully that the metal remains structurally undersupplied, with sustained backwardation and extremely tight lease rates signalling deep physical stress.
Wayne shared that he was more optimistic about a moderate recovery of the industrial cycle occurring in the United States in 2026. This would support gold rising but even a small increase in growth would fuel a higher price increase in silver, PGMs and copper relative to gold.
On tariffs, panellists agreed that while gold appears settled, PGMs carry real – if still modest – risk of policy action in the US, given their strategic role in automotive and industrial applications.
The Portfolio Question: Is 60/20/20 the New 60/40?
John challenged the panel with one of the most discussed shifts in asset allocation theory: a potential transition from the classic 60/40 equity–bond blend to a
60/20/20 model with gold replacing 20% of the bond / fixed income allocation.
While Wayne stopped short of a wholesale endorsement, he acknowledged the underlying trend: clients are increasingly reducing their bond holdings and replacing them with gold due to concerns about government debt sustainability and the weakening reliability of bonds as diversifiers – confidence in US government bonds behaving how they historically would, is diminishing.
Saad reinforced this point, noting the widening doubt about whether major sovereigns – not just the US – can credibly manage their long-term liabilities.
A Market Redefined
This year’s investment session underscored an evolution in how precious metals markets function, how investors engage, and how macro forces coalesce.
The panellists were clear: this is not a rally driven by euphoria, but by structural change – geopolitical, financial, technological, and behavioural.
Gold is no longer just a hedge; it is becoming a central portfolio asset for institutions and private investors alike, though still only a small percentage of a full portfolio –about 2% having risen from 1%.
Silver and PGMs are re-entering the conversation with renewed relevance.
And the market plumbing beneath the surface – liquidity, access, regulation – is undergoing a transformation that will shape price behaviour for years to come.
As the session closed, the panel discussed the potential for market corrections. In Amir’s words: “You cannot deny that the environment we are in is a multi-year bullish environment – and who knows how long it can go on for.”
