Winners of 2019 Precious Metals Forecast Survey
LBMA is delighted to announce the results of its 2019 Precious Metals Forecast Survey. In January 2019, analysts provided their forecasts for what they thought the average price in 2019 would be for each of the four metals (gold, silver, platinum and palladium).
1oz gold bars kindly donated by PAMP were the reward for the analyst in each of the four metal categories whose forecast was closest to the actual average price in 2019. In the event of a tie, we take into account the analysts’ forecast ranges.
Congratulations to the winning analysts and commiserations to the runners-up.
Analysts were relatively bullish for gold in 2019 but their average forecast still fell $80 short of the actual average price for the year of $1,392.6. It’s not surprising therefore that the most bullish analysts battled out the finish. Vying for the first prize were Rene Hochreiter (Noah Capital Markets/Sieberana Research Pty Ltd) and Rhona O’Connell (INTL FCStone) with their forecast of $1,365. We couldn't split them even after taking into acocunt their ranges, so they shared first place and each secure a 1oz gold bar. For Rene this represented his seventh winning prize, which puts him alongside Ross Norman as the analyst with the highest number of first place finishes. Breathing down their necks in third place, closely following up on his second place finish in the 2018 Survey, was Hans- Guenter Ritter (Heraeus) with his forecast of $1,355.
The actual average price out turned at $16.20 not far off the $16.28 which analysts had on average forecast. Out in front was Bernard Dahdah (Natixis) whose forecast was spot on the money at $16.20, which was certainly impressive forecasting. Stealing second place was James Steel (HSBC), who was just seven cents away with his forecast of $16.27. In third spot was Matthew Turner (Independent) with a forecast of £16.10. It was fitting to see Bernard scoop first prize here as he narrowly missed out last year by 10 cents to finish runner-up.
Of the prospects for the four metals in 2019, analysts were most bullish about platinum with an average forecast of $850.71 against an actual price of $862.90, so they were only $12 off-track. In one of the tightest-ever finishes, two analysts, Frederic Panizzutti (MKS PAMP Group) and Bernard Dahdah could not be separated. With the same forecast of $855, a dead heat was the only fair outcome and so they both receive a 1oz gold bar. In a close call for third place was Suki Cooper (Standard Chartered) with her forecast of $874.
Surprisingly, given what happened to palladium in 2019, analysts took a bearish view of its prospects in 2019. They forecast prices to fall 3.1% to an average of just $1,267.68. How wrong they were, with palladium being the best performing metal, ending the year at $1,920, nearly $700 up on 2019. With the average price in 2019 of $1,536.74, the finish was dominated by those analysts who adopted a bullish forecast. The most bullish of all was Ross Norman (Independent) whose forecast of $1,505 was just $30 off the actual average. This represented Ross’s second first prize in the last two Surveys and his seventh first prize overall, which puts him alongside Rene as the analyst with the highest number of first place finishes. It was fitting therefore that second place should go to no other than Rene with his forecast of $1,418, followed closely by William Adams (Fastmarkets) in third place with his prediction of $1,410.
1oz Gold Bar Prizes
Congratulations to all the winners who will each receive a 1oz gold bar, kindly donated by PAMP. See our website for further details.