In mid-January 2024, analysts provided forecast predictions for the average price of gold, silver, platinum and palladium in 2024.
Four 1oz gold bars kindly donated by MKS PAMP GROUP
are the reward for the analyst in each of the four metal categories whose forecast is closest to the actual average price in 2024.
2024 Winning Forecasts and Actuals
| Metal | Winning Forecast | Actual 2024 Average Price | Analysts’ 2024 Forecast Average | Actual Average Prices in 2023 | Actual Average Prices 2-11 Jan 2024 inclusive* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $2,170.00 | $2,386.20 | $2,058.96 | $1,940.54 | $2,040.19 |
| Silver | $27.00 | $28.27 | $24.76 | $23.349 | $23.14 |
| Platinum | $955.00 | $955.73 | $1,015.00 | $964.98 | $952.88 |
| Palladium | $992.00 | $983.62 | $1,060.14 | $1,337.39 | $1,031.88 |
*Analysts were required to submit their forecasts by Thursday, 11 January 2024. All prices in the table relate to the LBMA (PM) precious metal prices.
Congratulations to the winning analysts and commiserations to the runners-up.
Details of their forecasts can be found below:
In an extraordinary, record-breaking year for gold, 2024 drew to a close with the average price of $2,386.20 for the year – nearly $450 higher than in 2023. As the most bullish analyst for 2024, Chantelle’s forecast of $2,170.00 was high enough to secure first place.
The average of all forecasts for gold in 2024 was $2,058.96, some $327 below the actual average price for the year, revealing that gold’s performance far exceeded analysts’ expectations.
In second position – for the second year in a row – was Ross Norman (CEO Metals Daily Ltd) with his forecast of $2,166.00. And in third spot – also for the second year in a row – was Keisuke Okui (Sumitomo Corp) with his forecast of $2,170.00.
The average price for silver was $28.26 for 2024. Julia was the most bullish silver analyst of them all – netting her top spot with her forecast of $27.00. Silver saw a strong 2024, with average prices of nearly $5 greater than in 2023, and $3.51 above the average of the forecasts for 2024.
In second position was Joni Teves (UBS) with her forecast of $26.70, followed by Bruce Ikemizu – last year’s winner for his gold forecast – in third with his forecast of $26.00.
Ross was the closest analyst for platinum this year with his forecast of $955.00, a hair’s breadth away from the actual average price for platinum of $955.73 for 2024.
Platinum did not perform as well as analysts expected this year – and more poorly than in 2023 – as the average forecast was $1,015.00, almost $60 higher than the actual average for this year. Highlighting this, Ross’ winning forecast was the second lowest average price of the pack.
In second place was Alexander Zumpfe (Heraeus Metals Germany) with his forecast of $950.00, followed by Rohit Savant (CPM Group, and this year’s palladium winner) with his forecast of $962.00.
Rohit was the winner for palladium, with his forecast of $992.00 the closest to the actual average price of $983.62 for the year.
Palladium performed poorly in 2024 compared to 2023, when its actual average price was $1,337.39. Palladium ended the year even lower than the average analyst 2024 forecast of $1060.14.
In second spot was Rene Hochreiter (Noah Capital Markets/Sieberana Research) with his forecast of $970.00, followed by Nicky Shiels (MKS PAMP) with her forecast of $1,000.00.
Want to take part?
LBMA's Public Affairs Committee approves all applications to contribute to the survey, with their decision based on the applicant’s relevant expertise, their forecasting experience and the institution they represent.
We have already reached out to analysts taking part in the 2025 Forecast Survey, which will be published later this month. If you would like to apply to take part in the 2026 Forecast Survey, please send your details to Shelly Ford, LBMA Digital Content Manager, at shelly.ford@lbma.org.uk.