January 27, 2023

Winners of LBMA's 2022 Precious Metals Forecast Survey

In mid-January 2022, analysts provided forecast predictions for the average price of gold, silver, platinum and palladium in 2022.

Four 1oz gold bars kindly donated by MKS PAMP GROUP are the reward for the analyst in each of the four metal categories whose forecast is closest to the actual average price in 2022. In the event of a tie, we take into account the analysts' forecast ranges, with the one with the range closest to the actual range during 2022 taking first place.

Congratulations to the winning analysts and commiserations to the runners-up.

Metal Winning Forecast Actual 2022 average price Analysts' 2022 forecast average Actual average prices in 2021 Actual average prices 4-14 Jan 2022 inclusive (a)
Gold $1,800 $1,800.094 $1,801.9 $1,798.6 $1,809.478
Silver $21.78 $21.73 $23.54 $25.14 $22.729
Platinum $970 $960.508 $1,063.4 $1,090.2 $967.111
Palladium $2,110 $2,112.06 $1,967.64 $2,398.3 $1,896.222

(a) Analysts were required to submit their forecasts by Thursday, 14 January 2021. All prices in the table relate to PM precious metal prices.

GOLD - 2022 Actual Average Price $1,800.094

Analysts forecast that the gold price would average $1801.9 throughout 2022 – just one dollar higher than the actual average price for the year. This average forecast, which revealed a cautious outlook for gold’s prospects, was a mere $3 greater than the actual average price for the previous year. Nicky Shiels (MKS PAMP) won this close-run contest, with her forecast of $1,800.00 just 9 cents shy of the actual average price.

In second position was Nikos Kavalis (Metals Focus) with his forecast of $1,810.00 and in third place was Rohit Savant (CPM Group LLC) with $1,790.00.

SILVER - 2022 Actual Average Price $21.73

Analysts forecast that the silver price would average $23.54, revealing a bearish attitude to the metal’s prospects considering the actual average price in 2021 was $25.14. The analyst with the winning forecast was Grant Sporre (Bloomberg Intelligence) with his forecast of $21.78, 5 cents off target.

Taking second place was Joni Teves (UBS Limited) with her forecast of $21.60 and third place was Nicky Shiels (MKS PAMP Group) with a forecast of $22.00.

PLATINUM - 2022 Actual Average Price $960.508

Analysts forecast platinum prices to average $1063.4 during 2022, but it was the more bearish analysts in with a chance at the prize for palladium as the actual average was $960.508. The analyst with the closest forecast to the actual average was Bernard Dahdah (Natixis) with his forecast of $970.00.

In second place was Okui Keisuke (Sumitomo Corporation) with $980, followed in joint third position by Rene Hochreiter (Noah Capital Markets/Sieberana Research (Pty) Ltd) and Robin Bahr (Robin Bahr Metals Consulting (RBMC) with their matching forecasts of $1,000.00.

PALLADIUM - 2022 Actual Average Price $2,112.060

The forecasts for palladium by our analysts averaged at $1,967.64, in a marked drop from the actual average price the year before of $2,398.3. James Steel (HSBC Securities USA) was the winner for palladium with his forecast of $2,110, just over 2 dollars below the actual average price.

A forecast of $2,116 gave Suki Cooper (Standard Chartered) second place, while Pearson Mururi (Afriforesight) secured third position with his forecast of $2,104.

1oz Gold Bar Prizes

Congratulations to all the winners who will each receive a 1oz Lady Fortuna gold bar, kindly donated by MKS PAMP GROUP and provided by GOLD AVENUE.

Don’t miss analysts' detailed forecasts and commentaries in the 2023 Precious Metals Survey which will be published next week.

See our website for further details.

For further information please contact:

Shelly Ford
Digital Content Manager