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2010-2025 Actuals Vs Forecasts

2025 Precious Metals Forecast Survey

Analysts' forecasts

Take a look at the analysts' individual forecasts and commentary, revealing their insights behind their forecasts for highs, lows, and average prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium.

— Analysts' average forecast

— Average price year to date

— Average price 2024

— Current price

$2,200 $2,300 $2,400 $2,500 $2,600 $2,700 $2,800 $2,900 $3,000 $3,100 $3,200 $3,300 $3,400 $3,500

Gold forecast

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Robin Bhar

Robin Bhar Metals Consulting

Range

$2,400 - $2,900

Average

$2,500

Economic and heightened political uncertainty fuelled by a second Trump presidency will ensure gold remains a vital asset to provide a hedge. Geopolitical risks continue to bubble in various hot spots adding to inflationary risks and continued safe-haven demand for gold. Central bank buying should continue to be an important support factor, as will continued portfolio diversification and speculative money on the long side. Huge government deficits and huge increases in public and private debt should support the gold price on continued debasement fears. The three most important factors that will impact on the gold price in 2025: 1. US monetary policy 2. Central banks 3. Geopolitics

Gold forecast

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Nicholas Frappell

ABC Refinery Pty Limited

Range

$2,391 - $3,086

Average

$2,515

Gold remains in a bull trend across medium- and long-term time frames. I expect gold to benefit chiefly from uncertainty in 2025, and the inauguration of President Trump has underscored that uncertainty over a host of issues ranging from security, trade, and taxation. Additionally, the lack of a clear pathway to remedy US deficits is likely to place further strain on yields, which have been positively correlated with gold since mid-2023. On the bearish side, the US dollar may act as a drag given expectation of American economic outperformance.

Gold forecast

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Kirill Kirilenko

CRU International

Range

$2,450 - $2,900

Average

$2,580

The steady and powerful gold rally observed in 2024 is expected to evolve into a more volatile ‘rollercoaster’ in 2025. While monetary easing and central bank gold buying will continue to provide key support for gold prices, several headwinds are emerging. One of these is the potential reduction in geopolitical risk. A de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East and/or a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could significantly reduce the geopolitical risk premium that has underpinned gold prices. Meanwhile, the introduction of universal tariffs or large-scale tax cuts by the Trump administration presents another challenge. These actions are likely to spur inflation, which may initially push gold prices higher as investors seek an inflation hedge. However, rising inflation may prompt the US Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts – or even begin raising interest rates again – boosting the attractiveness of the US dollar. A stronger dollar may put downward pressure on gold, potentially limiting its upward momentum. Three most important drivers for gold prices in 2025: 1. Geopolitical developments 2. US Fed’s monetary policy decisions 3. Donald Trump’s economic and trade policies

Gold forecast

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Srivatsava Ganapathy

Eventell Global Advisory P Ltd.

Range

$2,350 - $3,100

Average

$2,590

Acceleration in global economic growth to pre-pandemic levels alone can slow down or arrest gold price increase. That seems unlikely in 2025. Central banks are likely to continue gold buying. The Russia-Ukraine war may take a pause, but it is likely that US-China trade friction may escalate. The Middle-East will continue to be geopolitically sensitive. Interest rates may drop by about 50 basis points, albeit gradually. Given these factors, gold in 2025 is likely to hold on to its current levels. Key drivers that could influence gold prices in 2025: • Expectations about global economic growth rates • Expectation about interest rate changes

Gold forecast

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Nikos Kavalis

Metals Focus

Range

$2,300 - $3,000

Average

$2,600

Bullish gold market conditions should prevail during the first half of 2025. Further US rate cuts, elevated inflation, tax cuts helping US equities, uncertainty over US trade and foreign policy, geopolitical tensions and strong central bank buying will all support the gold price. Meanwhile, investor involvement in gold remains short of previous peaks, particularly when measured as a share of overall assets. We therefore believe there is still scope for fresh inflows, which should take the price to a new all-time record of $3,000/oz. By the second half of the year, a likely slowdown or pause in US rate cuts, easing US equity prices and growing clarity over US policy, should all weigh on gold. Still, risks to global markets and geopolitical tensions will remain elevated and central bank buying will continue. Gold prices will remain elevated and the full year average of $2,600/oz will be another all-time record and 9% higher year-on-year.

Gold forecast

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Marcus Garvey

Macquarie Bank Ltd.

Range

$2,350 - $3,050

Average

$2,650

The most striking feature of gold’s price performance, especially in real terms, is that it has occurred without declining real interest rates. We primarily attribute this to developed markets’ fiscal outlooks increasing the attraction of gold’s lack of credit and counterparty risk, a feature which should support private sector financial flows again in 2025. Three key drivers for gold: 1. Trump administration policy impact on the projected US fiscal deficit and inflation, alongside the FOMC response to this. 2. Chinese government stimulus and the extent to which it impacts onshore investors’ demand for gold. 3. The pace of ongoing central bank gold buying.

Gold forecast

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James Steel

HSBC

Range

$2,400 - $2,975

Average

$2,687

Gold is likely to be supported by a cocktail of safe-haven and momentum purchases, spurred in part by policy and economic uncertainty. As the monetary easing cycle matures however, further cuts may be progressively less supportive. Mounting fiscal deficits are also likely to encourage gold demand. While sentiment remains bullish, high yields may also cap rallies. According to HSBC FX research, the USD is likely to rally modestly this year, and this could curb gold rallies. Trade and/or geopolitical risks – notably tariff risks – may be the principal supporting agents for gold. Central bank demand is likely to remain high, buoyed by geopolitical risks and dollar diversification but below peak 2022-23 levels. High prices are also notably eroding jewellery and coin and bar demand in key price-sensitive emerging and some OECD markets. Weaker physical demand leaves greater amounts of bullion to be absorbed by investors.

Gold forecast

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Rohit Savant

CPM Group LLC

Range

$2,350 - $3,150

Average

$2,700

Gold prices are expected to remain strong during 2025, possibly reaching fresh record high levels. There are several price-supportive political and economic risks that could drive gold prices higher. The one factor that is expected to be most supportive of gold prices during 2025 is uncertainty. Uncertainty, both political and economic, is expected to be elevated going forward, which is expected to keep gold a top priority for investors as a portfolio diversifier. In addition to support from investors, central banks too are expected to remain net buyers of gold, providing additional support to gold prices.

Gold forecast

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Kieran Tompkins

Capital Economics

Range

$2,500 - $2,900

Average

$2,700

We expect gold to make further gains this year, due to strength in ‘non-traditional’ gold demand drivers. Demand from central banks will remain strong; there is still plenty of scope for central banks in China’s sphere of influence to continue adding to their gold reserves. Meanwhile, the relative attractiveness of gold as an investment amongst Chinese investors might increase against a backdrop of a structurally slowing economy and poor returns from other asset classes. That said, it is unlikely to follow up a banner year for gold in 2024 with similarly massive gains. After all, the strength of the US economy and resilience of the labour market, particularly relative to other major economies, should provide a check on the gold price if it continues to pile upward pressure on Treasury yields and the US dollar. President Trump poses the major wildcard to the gold market in the year ahead. On the one hand, the imposition of tariffs could prove a headwind to gold prices via a stronger US dollar. But on the other hand, his plans for tax cuts in the context of increasing concerns over fiscal sustainability could support gold given its role as an inflation hedge. Three most important factors: 1. Central bank buying 2. Concerns around US fiscal deficit 3. Strength of the US economy

Gold forecast

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Michael Hsueh

Deutsch Bank

Range

$2,550 - $3,000

Average

$2,725

We think the scope for gold correction will be limited to the USD 2,550-2,650/oz zone, largely because of evidence already seen that Asian physical investment and reserve manager demand is taking advantage of the relative calm in prices to increase buying. We expect a positive inflection point for gold may be seen around the middle of the year, and allow gold to resume an upward path towards our year-end target of USD 2,900/oz. Two factors may help to bring this about; one is a potential peak in the USD and US Treasury yields, and the second is greater clarity on the nature of US trade policy, negotiations between concerned parties including China on the targeted issues, and any resulting trade dislocations. Three most important factors: 1. The appetite and buying capacity of Asian physical investors in the context of an improved social safety net in China, 2. Whether or not any major new geopolitical conflicts erupt outside of the Israel-Gaza-Lebanon region and Ukraine 3. The breadth and scope of US aggression in trade tariffs and trade relationships, which we would see as a negative for gold.

Gold forecast

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Bernard Dahdah

Natixis

Range

$2,550 - $3,200

Average

$2,725

Gold prices will continue to rise on the back of global rate cuts, central bank and Chinese consumer demand. On the back of Trump’s inflationary tariffs, US rate cuts are set to be less steep than what markets had expected in the second half of 2024 and although gold prices are set to rise, the increase will come at a slower pace than the previous year. Central bank demand will remain close to 2024 levels with the continued de-dollarisation efforts by those which are not friendly with the western bloc (mainly concerns steaming from the freezing of Russian assets following the Ukraine invasion). We also see a return in Western investor demand which will lead to positive flows into physically backed ETFs. Top three drivers: 1. Fed rates 2. Central bank demand 3. Western investor demand

Gold forecast

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Grant Sporre

Bloomberg Intelligence

Range

$2,350 - $3,000

Average

$2,727

Most of gold's positive drivers that lifted prices to record levels in 2024 are still in place. Yet the intensity of these drivers may cool somewhat over the course of 2025, with bullion already pricing in a lot of these positive catalysts already. Overall, we expect gold's tailwinds to boost the average price up again in 2025, but not to the same extent as in 2024. Geopolitical risks are likely to stay elevated with Trump's return to the White House unlikely to be a calming influence, which could see central banks, especially emerging markets, continue to add gold to their reserves at a brisk rate. Real interest rates are likely to fall further as the Fed cuts rates, although a change in pace may wrong-foot the market which could see the Fed become a headwind for gold, at least temporarily. Three main drivers for gold: 1. Continued perceptions of elevated geopolitical risks spilling over into the financial markets 2. Continued central bank bullion purchases well above the average 3. Pace of the Fed rate cut cycle

Gold forecast

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Jonathan Butler

Mitsubishi Corporation

Range

$2,250 - $3,100

Average

$2,730

Provided the US Federal Reserve continues on its current path of interest rate cuts, gold will benefit from lower real yields and some weakening of the US dollar. The new Trump administration’s trade and domestic growth policies are likely to be inflationary, which may support gold in the near term, but could lead the Fed having to play catch-up on rates towards the end of the year and into 2026, raising yields and eroding the generally supportive backdrop to bullion. There may be limited upside from physical investment amid the charms of surging US equities and cryptocurrencies, however central banks are likely to remain steady gold buyers as they pursue de-dollarisation of their reserves amid ongoing geopolitical fragmentation. Three most important factors for gold: 1. Rate cuts 2. US dollar 3. Tariffs

Gold forecast

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Peter Fertig

QCR Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd.

Range

$2,475 - $2,945

Average

$2,735

Central banks will play a crucial role for the price development of gold in 2025 for several reasons. First, they are the decisive influence on short-term interest rates. And they will not follow the lead of the Fed, but will set the monetary policy rates according to the economic development in their currency areas. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at the last meeting in 2024 indicated that there will be only two further cuts by 25 bp respectively. The European Central Bank, however, is faced with a sluggish economy in the Euro zone and will have to cut its key interest rate quicker and faster to support the economy. A risk factor for the Fed remains the fiscal policy of Donald Trump after his inauguration in January. Higher tariffs only support the US economy if they lead to higher prices for US producers. It has to be expected that US inflation will increase again, which could strengthen the US dollar and weaken the price of gold. However, central banks also play a role as investors in gold, which is part of the currency reserves. Geopolitical tensions will cause more central banks to increase their holding of gold, especially in the BRICS countries.

Gold forecast

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Nicky Shiels

MKS PAMP SA

Range

$2,500 - $3,200

Average

$2,750

Gold is in secular bull market, but the direction of travel won’t be as one-directional in 2025 as in 2024. Peak political fear is behind us following Trump’s decisive win, compounded by the US focus on deregulation, tax cuts, and tariffs (not wars). Central bank buying trends will continue at similar pace in 2025 vs. 2024, but flows will remain more discreet given the threat of Trump tariffs on countries perceived to be actively de-dollarising. Investment demand is likely to be muted again given the high cost of carry, while physical demand should remain robust given ongoing debasement trends. DM retail demand is expected to remain soft as risk appetite is channeled into other asset classes. Gold prices at $3,000+ or $2,500- is contingent on whether the Fed is ahead or behind the ‘Trumpflation’ curve; we expect them to be behind, leading to falling real rates and a softer US dollar in the latter half of the year. Structurally, the positive feedback loop of HFL inflation, ongoing deglobalisation/currency debasement/central bank de-dollarisation, messy and unpredictable geopolitics, unsustainable global debt paths, and an under-owned general investor community ensures that gold remains a safe asset diversifier. But expect volatile price action where the risk of a bear case (a new and growing narrative) superseding the bull case (which is getting stale and increasingly priced in) is rising. Gold’s top three driving factors: 1. Central Bank demand 2. Fed rate cuts 3. Investor participation

Gold forecast

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Christopher Louney

Commodity Strategist, RBC Capital Markets

Range

$2,383 - $2,885

Average

$2,771

While our 2025 outlook is slightly lower than it was previously, gold’s role as a hedge in times of uncertainty, a perceived inflation hedge, and both a diversifier and a risk overlay, can all benefit gold as we march into the coming year full of unknowns. Abundant political and geopolitical risks, US exceptionalism, and the TBD nature of what US policies are enacted after the Red Sweep leave the door open for gold investment. This extends into 2026. While early risk-on flows may not have benefited gold, potential trade conflict, inflation, market volatility, and geopolitical risk all may support gold through our forecast horizon. We note that the upside beyond our forecasts is likely capped around our high scenario. We think the floor for gold, assuming that all of the gold-negative risks pan out and consumers, central banks, and investors sour on gold, is closer to our low. Three most important factors that you think will impact on the gold price in 2025. 1. Fed and interest rates 2. Risk and uncertainty driving investor flows 3. Central banks continuing to buy

Gold forecast

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Rhona O'Connell

StoneX Financial Ltd

Range

$2,590 - $3,040

Average

$2,780

After a year in which gold amply fulfilled its role as a mitigator of risk and a mirror to uncertainty, it looks as if it faces more of the same in 2025. Indeed, while the start of 2024 brought many projections of geopolitical uncertainty, not least due to over 50 elections with half the global population having the chance to vote, the start of 2025 arguably sees even more uncertainty than twelve months previously. The new political tapestry is not fully woven, and the pattern is not fully formed. Uncertainty and geopolitics are likely to remain the key drivers, with the dollar and interest rate differential taking something of a back seat, while high deficits and contracting fiscal headroom in a number of economies are taking an increasing role. That said, much of this is already priced in and the last lap is always the hardest. It looks from here as if 2025 will see the peak in the dollar gold price. The timing is hard to call, but the third quarter looks like a feasible target.

Gold forecast

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Suki Cooper

Standard Chartered

Range

$2,400 - $3,000

Average

$2,781

We think price risks are still skewed to the upside and we expect gold to set further record highs. The signals for gold price action have become less clear in an environment of a strong USD, scaled back rate-cut expectations and inflation concerns given tariff risk in a second Trump administration, as well as heightened uncertainty. Prices are unlikely to embark on in a singular upward path. In our view, three factors will be key for gold: 1. Central bank demand 2. Resurgence of investor appetite 3. Inflation risk. While expectations of tariffs and their inflationary impact are likely to buoy interest in gold longer-term, gold looks set to take its cue from the USD in the short term. Official-sector demand will remain crucial to further gains as investor appetite is likely to ebb and flow. An uptick in buying in Q4-2024 suggests that higher prices have not deterred additions to gold reserves. We expect demand to remain healthy in 2025, helping to plug the shortfall in investment demand. Central bank demand will likely remain by far the most significant factor determining gold price risk in 2025.

Gold forecast

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Joni Teves

UBS

Range

$2,450 - $3,100

Average

$2,800

Gold's rally should extend, as the Fed continues to cut rates and 10 year real yields fall. Uncertainty around growth, inflation, fiscal policy, persistent geopolitical tensions and the risk of trade wars underpin the demand for gold as a portfolio diversifier and hedge. Growing strategic allocations should drive prices higher, underpinned by continued official sector purchases and resilient fundamental demand.

Gold forecast

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René Hochreiter

NOAH Capital Markets and Sieberana Research

Range

$2,633 - $3,050

Average

$2,850

The Trump administration policies will likely see a stronger US Dollar resulting in a weaker gold price. However, the early passive aggression displayed – like the heavy import duties on its biggest importers like China, Canada, Mexico, and US, forcing the delisting of several targeted private companies having links with the Chinese military – will place further penalties on countries which undermine the US Dollar as the World’s reserve currency. Furthermore, possible escalation of poor relations between China and the US and less support for the Ukraine and Israel in their conflicts could see the gold price heading for $3,000/oz as non-US investors run for cover under the gold insurance umbrella. Three most important factors affecting the gold price in 2024: 1. US economic aggression from inside of ‘Fort Trump’ causing the rest of the world to shelter in gold 2. USD vs the DXY direction 3. US treasury rates direction

Gold forecast

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Debajit Saha

Metals Research, Refinitiv, an LSEG Business

Range

$2,570 - $3,175

Average

$2,850

2025 may prove to be a challenging year for global policymakers as numerous issues are unfolding simultaneously. Geopolitical conflicts remain major concerns for international peace, while contrasting yield curves in the two largest economies – the US and China – along with the fear of a tariff war between these economic giants, will be central themes. The expectation that Trump will adopt a more liberal economic policy to stimulate growth could lead to higher inflation in the US, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain elevated interest rates. Conversely, record-low yields on benchmark bonds in China raise concerns about deflation among investors. Additionally, worries about European sovereign debt and slower consumption growth in emerging economies further complicate the landscape. Against this backdrop, we believe that gold will continue to uphold its reputation as a safe-haven asset, although we do not anticipate another rally of 25% or greater this year. Investors and central banks are expected to remain key buyers, while growth in the physical market may slow.

Gold forecast

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Julia Du

ICBC Standard Bank

Range

$2,550 - $3,100

Average

$2,850

We project that gold prices in 2025 are likely to continue their upward trend, albeit with potential fluctuations. The average price for the year is forecast to be around $2,850 per ounce, with a range between $2,550 and $3,100. This prediction is based on several key factors: persistent geopolitical risks, continued gold reserve accumulation by central banks, especially in emerging markets, potential inflationary pressures from Trump's re-election and associated fiscal policies, stricter trade tariffs and global economic uncertainties that may enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. However, the Federal Reserve's more hawkish stance, with only two expected rate cuts in 2025, could strengthen the dollar and potentially limit gold's gains. It's important to note that with gold prices currently at historic highs, the potential for significant further increases may be limited. Any positive economic or geopolitical news could prompt investors to take profits, leading to price corrections.

Gold forecast

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Bruce Ikemizu

Japan Bullion Market Association

Range

$2,500 - $3,100

Average

$2,870

The 2024 rally was beyond anyone’s imagination and the trend is still ongoing. Brics+ central banks will continue switching their USD to gold especially with Trump in charge. US debt will most likely increase with his policy of tax deductions and higher tariffs. That may lead to the downgrade of the US debt and more de-dollarisation. Gold is appreciated as a necessary investment item in portfolios now and money allocations from both funds and retail investors will increase regardless of the interest rate or dollar strength. Gold may not rally as much in 2025 compared to 2024 but still there is enough support to reach $3,000. Key factors that impact gold price: • Continuing de-dollarisation (= emerging countries’ central bank buying) • Geopolitical tensions and uncertainties being created by the Trump 2 administration.

Gold forecast

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Chantelle Schieven

Capitalight Research

Range

$2,510 - $3,290

Average

$2,875

Many of the same factors that drove the gold price higher in 2024 will likely also be positive for gold in 2025. Two of these key factors are central bank gold demand and geopolitical/financial uncertainty. Central bank demand for gold continues to be strong. Uncertainty in the geopolitical and financial environment has increased significantly in recent months. Gold could literally surge at any time on the back of any number of crises over the next several years. Increased economic and financial uncertainty could arise as markets question the ability of governments to service high debt levels. The impact of rising global debt on macroeconomic policy (monetary/fiscal) and on economic growth moves along at a glacial speed. Eventually, it undermines confidence in a government’s ability to deal not only with normal cyclical economic developments but most certainly with any crisis development, such as a pandemic or military, which calls for unusual fiscal support. To be sure, debt levels have risen everywhere, it is not just a US phenomenon. Indeed, to the degree it might undermine the dollar, it undermines other currencies as well.

Gold forecast

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Ross Norman

CEO Metals Daily Ltd

Range

$2,630 - $3,175

Average

$2,888

To know the future, you need to understand the past. But with little or no consensus as to why gold achieved a 27% gain in 2024, it makes it especially hard to gauge whether the trend will prevail; institutional (ETF) demand is flat, investment demand is lacklustre, while reported central bank demand is below the last two-year levels. Worst of all – and most perversely – gold's inverse correlation with many traditional macro drivers are out the window. Arguably, dollar strength and rising treasury yields may have only served to temper the rate of gold price increase, and hence them moving in parallel, suggesting to us that gold prices could accelerate again once the handbrake is off. This indicates a good underlying strength in the market. Likely the significant price rise was down to unreported central bank buying as sovereign nations de-dollarise, coupled with outlandish Asian OTC derivatives plays. If we are right, then we see no reason for a change in mode in 2025 and the gold rally remains intact, but perhaps a little less so. In 2025 the world may be more convivial, with US economic prospects and the dollar brightening, plus we may well see an echo to inflation as we did in the 1970s – but we think this matters less than it should. The high conviction buying looks set to remain, even if the motive remains a matter of debate. Three driving factors: 1. Chinese demand 2. Debt 3. Derivatives

Gold forecast

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Keisuke (Bill) Okui

Sumitomo Corporation

Range

$2,550 - $3,200

Average

$2,925

Gold is expected to go higher due to continuous buying from private sectors and central banks. More people will have access to gold ETFs and gold futures contracts all over the world and this will support the price in 2025. These buying interests generally come from the fear of uncertainties ahead including disputes and conflicts. The amount of cash floating in the market is also helping the price not to come off. The downside concerns are USD interest rates and the gold price itself. Not many market participants are expecting USD interest rates to continuously go lower. The price of gold itself is already relatively very high compared to the previous year; it is already inflated and there’s potential for asset reallocation especially towards things like crypto currencies and away from gold. Quantitative tapering from major central banks can also be a key factor for the downside to assets in general including gold. Three most important factors I think will impact on the gold price in 2025 1. USD interest rates 2. Gold accumulation by Central Banks 3. QT by major Central Banks

— Analysts' average forecast

— Average price year to date

— Average price 2024

— Current price

$22 $26 $30 $34 $38 $42 $46

Silver forecast

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Nicholas Frappell

ABC Refinery Pty Limited

Range

$24.25 - $40.10

Average

$28.25

Silver also remains in a bull trend across weekly and monthly time frames. I expect silver to benefit from electrification and EV demand and also the above-mentioned tailwinds in gold. On the bearish side, a stronger dollar may impede Indian demand and tariffs risk impairing economic growth.

Silver forecast

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Peter Fertig

QCR Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd.

Range

$26 - $36.25

Average

$29.25

The price development of silver is also related to the monetary policy actions of central banks and the impact on the US dollar. Thus, a stronger US dollar will be a negative factor for silver. But, as soon as the European Central Bank signals that the bottom for the economy and interest rates is reached, silver will have the potential to rebound. However, silver is not a metal for holding larger amounts of currency reserves, and thus, it will not profit from central banks investing more in precious metals. This will be compensated by the industrial use, which is expected to increase and to support silver.

Silver forecast

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Srivatsava Ganapathy

Eventell Global Advisory P Ltd.

Range

$25 - $37.50

Average

$30.20

Silver industrial demand is expected to be robust although efforts will continue in the areas of thrifting, recycle and reuse. Jewellery and silverware market would struggle as higher prices discourage buyers. Silver ETFs and similar financial products are likely to grow in Asia. Silver is likely to consolidate in 2025.

Silver forecast

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James Steel

HSBC

Range

$28.50 - $34.75

Average

$30.28

We are moderately positive on silver prices. While we anticipate a production/consumption deficit for this year, we also view above ground stocks as sufficient to finance any deficit. US Dollar gains as forecast by HSBC FX research and a slowing monetary easing cycle will help cap silver rallies as will moderate coin and bar demand. Industrial demand remains strong but can only carry silver only so far, as mine and recycling supply are rising. We believe the gravitational pull on silver of high gold prices will play a central, if not defining role in higher silver this year, but that rallies will be restrained.

Silver forecast

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Philip Newman

Metals Focus

Range

$25.50 - $36

Average

$30.60

The silver price will be impacted by contrasting drivers in 2025. First, strong gold prices in the first half will also benefit silver. Support for the price will also come from another massive deficit, for the fifth year in succession. This will result in a cumulative stock drawdown over this timeframe of over 27,000 tonnes. By contrast, ongoing concerns about the prospects for the Chinese economy will weigh on industrial commodities, including silver, given its dual role as a precious and industrial metal. This helps explain why, even though gold is forecast to reach $3,000 during the first half of this year, silver will peak at $36.00, with the gold:silver ratio remaining stubbornly high in the low 80s. Later this year, liquidations in the gold market will spill over into silver, resulting in a low for 2025 of $25.50. Even so, the full year average of $30.60 will still be 8% higher year-on-year, delivering the highest annual average since 2012.

Silver forecast

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Marcus Garvey

Macquarie Bank Ltd.

Range

$27 - $36

Average

$30.69

Holding onto gold’s coattails and rallying on its precious metal characteristics. Underlying support also comes from its tight physical balance sheet but, against the backdrop of a potential trade war, a reacceleration in global manufacturing activity – that would further cyclically boost silver on its industrial metal characteristics – seems unlikely to come within 2025.

Silver forecast

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Kieran Tompkins

Capital Economics

Range

$27.50 - $34

Average

$31

We expect this year will be one of subdued price rises for silver, with the price getting caught between two opposing drivers. On the upside, the silver price should benefit from additional increases in the price of gold this year. However, silver’s extensive use in industry and, subsequently, the close correlation between the silver price and industrial metals prices, could prove a significant headwind due to the bleak backdrop for the latter owing to China’s property crisis.

Silver forecast

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Kirill Kirilenko

CRU International

Range

$26.50 - $35

Average

$31.35

The fundamental factors point to a positive outlook for silver prices in 2025. Strong demand growth from key sectors, such as solar panels and electronics, is expected to play a significant role in driving prices higher. As these industries continue to expand, particularly with the global push for renewable energy and technological advancements, the demand for silver is likely to remain strong. At the same time, silver supply is expected to grow only moderately, contributing to a tightening of the market. This growing supply-demand imbalance, coupled with ongoing monetary easing by major central banks, should continue to attract investor interest, creating a favourable environment for price growth in 2025. Key risks include the pace of the ‘green energy’ transition, base metals’ mine supply dynamics which could influence availability of by-product silver, and the potential for economic recessions, which could dampen industrial demand.

Silver forecast

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Julia Du

ICBC Standard Bank

Range

$28.50 - $36

Average

$32

Silver prices in 2025 will show moderate growth, averaging around $32.0 per ounce, with a range between $28.5 and $36.0. The dual nature of silver as both a safe-haven asset and an industrial metal may lead to greater price volatility compared to gold. This forecast considers several key factors, including strong industrial demand – particularly in electronics and photovoltaics, cautious interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the correlation with gold amid global economic uncertainties. While China's sluggish economic outlook may impact industrial output, further stimulus measures from Beijing could help offset this effect. On the supply side, slow growth in silver mining production has led to tight market conditions, and the silver deficit is expected to persist. Additionally, high inflation resulting from Trump's policies could enhance silver's attractiveness as a hedge against currency devaluation. However, it is important to note that prices may not continue the strong upward trend seen in 2024, as current levels are approaching historical highs, with a strong dollar likely capping further gains.

Silver forecast

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Michael Hsueh

Deutsch Bank

Range

$29.60 - $35

Average

$32.40

For silver, we think the rise in the gold-silver ratio towards a multi-year high of 91 at the start of January was evidence of a pessimistic view on the impact of the possible disruption to the international trade system. Whether silver is able to find a footing and recover in relative terms to gold, we think may be a function of the overall impact to industrial demand arising from stronger US growth and inflation, weaker conditions in Europe, and China's policy support for growth centering on consumption as a top priority. Our view is that the incoming US administration will tailor economic and trade policy to promote national prosperity, and that global economic growth may be nearly as strong as last year (3.1% vs 3.2% in 2024), in which case silver is likely to recover along with gold in the second half to US$35/oz.

Silver forecast

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Rhona O'Connell

StoneX Financial Ltd

Range

$27.70 - $38.20

Average

$32.50

Silver is in a phase of exciting transition. It remains closely allied to gold, of course, but the green revolution favours silver more strongly than a number of other mainstream metals. If we look at silver’s fundamentals without any investor activity, then since 2011 overall supply has exceeded industrial fabrication levels (including jewellery and silverware) by just under 80,000t, but investors were more than equal to the task and bought approximately 106,000t over the period (figures calculated from Metals Focus numbers). Therefore, it has arguably been in a surplus that investors have absorbed. During 2024 it moved into a pre-investment deficit that is set to widen for the foreseeable future, and this will give it longer-term independence, to a degree at least, from gold. For now, though, its industrial profile leaves it vulnerable to the vicissitudes of the European and Chinese economies, given that supply is largely price inelastic. There will, of course, be volatility – it’s in the nature of the beast – and 2025 may be something of a struggle until the shadows over the European and Chinese markets start to recede. A run towards $40 is entirely possible, but it would in all probability be one of those silver Cinderella moments – gone in the blink of an eye.

Silver forecast

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René Hochreiter

NOAH Capital Markets and Sieberana Research

Range

$29.40 - $37

Average

$33

The correlation between gold and silver may increase in 2025 as the US becomes more aggressive towards its trading partners, increasing global risk and uncertainty on which the gold price thrives. This should reflect on the silver price as investors use the metal as a proxy for gold. Furthermore, industrial demand for silver for photovoltaic cells in solar panels continues briskly, though it seems from some sources that this is at lower levels than previous years. Importantly, it is impossible to recycle and recover the silver from PV cells which means that any metal used in this application will not return to the market. Technically, the silver price has formed a ‘double bottom’, which usually indicates a sustained upwards move.

Silver forecast

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Emmanuel Munjeri

Bloomberg Intelligence

Range

$29.37 - $36.58

Average

$33.19

Silver – commonly referred to as the ‘devil’s metal’ due to its price volatility – is poised to outperform gold in 2025, with its quasi-metals status being a key support factor. Industrial demand for the metal will likely continue to surge to new records, with the metal's role in the photovoltaic sector and electrification a critical driver, helping it outpace a flat to marginal uplift in supply. Additionally, silver may continue to benefit from its precious metals status, alongside gold, as continued strong central bank purchases and further Fed rate cuts prove supportive. Despite the above ground stocks dampening the deficits in the market, positive investor sentiment towards the metal could narrow the gold-silver ratio below 2024's average of 84.8.

Silver forecast

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Bernard Dahdah

Natixis

Range

$24 - $39

Average

$33.30

The classic correlation between gold and silver will remain strong, with gold driving the direction. The energy transition related commodity market is likely to have a bumpy ride on the back of Trump’s arrival. That said, demand for silver will remain relatively strong especially in the solar panel sector which, even without subsidies, is already cost competitive.

Silver forecast

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Rohit Savant

CPM Group LLC

Range

$26.50 - $40.50

Average

$33.58

The prospects for silver prices in 2025 look strong at this time, with prices positioned for ongoing strength during 2025 and the potential for prices to outperform gold during the year. Silver’s investment demand, which is the key factor affecting prices, is largely influenced by the same factors that are positive for gold, which – coupled with the metal’s underperformance compared to gold – makes it a candidate for outperformance during 2025. One of the factors that has been weighing on silver prices has been liquidation by investors that bought silver in the past in anticipation of ongoing strength in silver prices and silver prices reaching fresh record high levels, beyond those last seen in 2011. As the intensity of this liquidation continues to dissipate, it will clear the path for silver prices to rise more forcefully. A lot of this liquidation already occurred in 2024.

Silver forecast

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Robin Bhar

Robin Bhar Metals Consulting

Range

$29 - $36

Average

$34

Many of the bullish drivers for gold also apply to silver, while global growth/industrial activity is likely to boost jewellery demand and the metal has more industrial applications and is critical to green technologies (solar PV, EVs, 5G networks, etc.). The strength of global silver industrial demand is expected to maintain the market in a deficit and drawing down tight silver inventories further. Investor interest will be boosted by silver’s key role in the energy transition.

Silver forecast

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Ross Norman

CEO Metals Daily Ltd

Range

$29.10 - $38.46

Average

$34.16

Sometimes unkindly referred to as the 'Cinderella metal' (because it often misses the ball), silver did receive the memo in 2024 and posted a solid 33% gain on the year. Arguably though it should have done even better because, as gold's alter ego, it would typically be expected to significantly outperform during the seismic shift these metals are seeing. Worryingly, while industrial demand is strong and rising sharply, and with the market set for yet another year with a supply deficit, physical investment demand is declining – while institutional demand via the ETF is relatively lacklustre. Parallels with gold are clear. To mix metaphors, this is not yet a market firing on all cylinders. We estimate the supply deficit will be around 250 million ounces in 2025 satisfied by a commensurate drawdown in pipeline metal. That can only happen for so long. Well at least silver is not an 'ugly sister', but to be clear, nor is this yet a fairy tale story either. And like Cinderella’s popularity, or indeed an ‘all time high’ – that may take a little while.

Silver forecast

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Jonathan Butler

Mitsubishi Corporation

Range

$28 - $40

Average

$34.50

Silver is likely to appreciate relative to gold as its industrial applications benefit from the pro-growth policies of the incoming Trump administration, as well as economic stimulus measures in key markets affected by US tariffs, including China and the EU. Demand in solar photovoltaics is likely to continue to rise despite a scaling back of US environmental policies. Expansion in the electronics and chemical sectors will also help keep the market in deficit. Silver retail investment, a more widely accessible proxy for gold, could get a boost from risk- and inflation-hedging, as well as lower real yields. The conundrum of lower interest rates amid rising inflation may force a reckoning between the Fed and the Treasury, which – together with unsustainable US debt levels – could further undermine confidence in the dollar and boost USD-priced silver.

Silver forecast

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Suki Cooper

Standard Chartered

Range

$26.50 - $40

Average

$34.63

The silver market is set to remain undersupplied in 2025, but a deficit alone will not be sufficient to drive upside price risk for silver, in our view. Even amid concerns over potential tariffs and shallower rate cuts, we expect industrial demand for silver to grow; however, investment demand has struggled to keep pace in recent months. Fundamentally, the silver market is in a different place now compared with the first Trump administration. In 2016, despite silver ETP inflows, the market was in surplus and recovering from levels where primary production was at risk of being placed on care and maintenance. Importantly, industrial demand has grown by 43% over the past eight years to fresh record highs, and now accounts for 84% of primary supply (compared with 54% in 2016). In other words, the silver market has a much more robust floor that has been driven by clean energy initiatives, such as solar demand and vehicle electrification. Potential changes to initiatives may dampen demand growth for BEVs or solar energy; this could soften appetite for silver. China’s PV demand has been a key driver and could slow in 2025, but countries outside China are adding to capacity.

Silver forecast

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Keisuke (Bill) Okui

Sumitomo Corporation

Range

$28 - $38.50

Average

$34.90

Silver is expected to go higher, following the price of gold. In the case of silver, the buying interests should come from both investment and industrial demand. The reasons behind investment demand are the same as those of gold. As for industrials, continuous PV related demand as well as electrical appliances usage should support this metal. Downside risks, however, are tough economic circumstances especially in China where they may require less silver for industrial use. Higher interest rate is another key to silver performance as it simply leads to less investment demand and reduced demand in the property market – which may lead to less solar panels used for the housing sector.

Silver forecast

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Bruce Ikemizu

Japan Bullion Market Association

Range

$27 - $40

Average

$35

My forecast for silver remains pretty much the same as the last year: bullish. My forecast last year was still a little too weak ($26 against $28.27 actual). Supply shortage has hit five consecutive years, with no signs of change. Above ground stock must be decreasing looking at stocks sharply going lower in Loco London. This supply and demand situation in addition to a steady gold price could boost silver price more than gold.

Silver forecast

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Debajit Saha

Metals Research, Refinitiv, an LSEG Business

Range

$28 - $43.50

Average

$35.10

Silver is likely to maintain its momentum in 2025, driven largely by investment and industrial demand. In 2024, global investors demonstrated significant confidence in silver for asset diversification and recognised its potential as an industrial metal. The rapid increase in demand within the renewable energy sector has generated renewed interest in metals. The "go green" initiative is expanding beyond major economies, attracting interest from smaller countries as well. The transition to solar and other renewable energy sources will continue to benefit silver, although physical demand is expected to encounter some challenges.

Silver forecast

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Joni Teves

UBS

Range

$26.20 - $40.80

Average

$35.40

We expect silver to outperform as investor interest picks up in an environment of rising gold prices, Fed policy easing and compelling silver supply/demand dynamics. Silver could additionally get a boost from higher commodity prices, given its link to industrial metals. That said, downside risks could come from the potential for a sharper slowdown in growth amid higher global tariffs and /or wider risk-off sentiment acting as a drag for industrial commodities.

Silver forecast

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Chantelle Schieven

Capitalight Research

Range

$26.30 - $40.80

Average

$35.60

The silver price will continue to climb for many of the same reasons as the gold price. In addition, silver’s increasing demand from electronics, renewable energy, and automotive sectors has strengthened it as a beneficiary of long-term rising industrial trends will also help boost silver prices higher in 2025.

Silver forecast

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Nicky Shiels

MKS PAMP SA

Range

$28 - $42

Average

$36.50

Silver is to outperform all precious metals in 2025 given synchronised central bank rate cuts, a more supportive China and US macroeconomic backdrop, still strong solar demand, and ultimately a lower US$ trajectory. Another strong rerating toward $40 is required to entice notoriously sticky holders to release metal as industrial demand remains robust and persistent. Silver’s upside will still hinge on investor participation outweighing any potential contraction in global industrial demand due the threat of Trump tariffs. Investment demand—both institutional and retail—should outpace the mild inflows seen in 2024. The same bullish argument from 2024 is now even more applicable: silver has more upside risk than gold because 1) it is relatively cheaper vs. its past price peaks, 2) is more elastic to a weaker US$ environment and a reflation upcycle, and 3) it is physically tighter with less readily available stocks. Fundamentally, deficits are expected throughout this decade, and its high beta characteristic vs. gold is attractive in a synchronised rate-cutting cycle. The gold/silver ratio should fall to 80 and target 75, levels associated with the 2021 reflation / COVID-19 reopening macro era.

— Analysts' average forecast

— Average price year to date

— Average price 2024

— Current price

$700 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400

Platinum forecast

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Kieran Tompkins

Capital Economics

Range

$800 - $1,040

Average

$920

The rollout of electric vehicles (EVs) will weigh on demand for platinum. Admittedly, the take-up of EVs in the west is in the midst of stalling and greater use of hybrid vehicles will be supportive of platinum. But EV sales in China have surged and, in any case, even non-EV sales are unlikely to strengthen much amid interest rates staying higher for longer, limiting any boost to platinum demand. The supply backdrop should benefit from South Africa’s mining sector returning to growth in 2025 as well as growth in recycling.

Platinum forecast

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Peter Fertig

QCR Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd.

Range

$825 - $1,075

Average

$935

The developments of the US dollar in the foreign exchange markets play a role for the price movements of the PGMs. However, the dominating factor is the demand from the automotive industry for catalytic converters. While some car manufacturer in Europe prefer to equip their vehicles with a fossil fuel burning combustion engine, the demand for e-vehicles in China is still on the rise. This implies that the demand for PGMs from the automobile sector is likely to decline and to weigh on the prices.

Platinum forecast

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Jacob Smith

Metals Focus

Range

$870 - $1,120

Average

$970

Platinum is expected to remain rangebound throughout 2025, continuing its trend since 2022. Ample above-ground stocks, with more than 3Moz in ETPs, will mitigate the effect of platinum’s third consecutive deficit in 2025, constraining price gains. Platinum’s range-trading behaviour is largely self-fulfilling. Traders consistently buy at levels in the low $900s and below, while selling near $1,000 and above. Chinese importers capitalise on price dips, and the industrial market provides enough support to stabilise prices without driving a breakout. Consequently, our price forecast remains largely unchanged year-on-year: lows of $870, highs of $1,120, and an annual average of $970, reflecting just a 1% increase from 2024’s annual average.

Platinum forecast

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René Hochreiter

NOAH Capital Markets and Sieberana Research

Range

$900 - $1,080

Average

$980

The platinum price has an inverse relationship with the ZAR/USD exchange rate; without fail, a weak ZAR results in a weak platinum price. This is because a weak ZAR results in higher margins for South African (SA) producers, resulting in continued platinum metal supply to the market, which depresses the USD price of platinum. With a high likelihood that the Rand could weaken in 2025 due to USD strength, the platinum price will struggle to gain ground especially as above ground stocks remain high. Added to this, high by-product prices increase SA producer margins which again encourages platinum supply. However, if the gold price rises to the $3,000/oz level, it may pull the platinum price up with it, as there are still algorithms which trade on a change in the price difference between the two metals.

Platinum forecast

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Bruce Ikemizu

Japan Bullion Market Association

Range

$850 - $1,200

Average

$980

My commentary is the same as last year. Platinum had a disappointing year in 2024 and it is still confined in a very tight range of $850-1100. It seems that this range will continue in 2025. The ‘buy below $900, sell above $1,000’ strategy is still good although I would initiate the long position first. Supply shortages and the South African mining situation may bring higher prices, while the China economy has the key to the global demand.

Platinum forecast

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Kirill Kirilenko

CRU International

Range

$870 - $1,080

Average

$983

In 2025, platinum market fundamentals are expected to soften as supply is forecast to grow faster than demand. With few significant new industrial applications on the horizon and investor interest remaining tepid, driving prices higher will be challenging. Platinum miners are therefore in a critical position to support prices by implementing more aggressive production cuts. These cuts will reduce the overall supply of platinum, potentially tightening the market and creating upward price pressure. With this scenario in mind, we forecast a moderate rebound in platinum prices for 2025, with an annual average price increasing to $983/oz. This projected price movement hinges largely on the ability of producers to effectively manage supply levels while navigating ongoing challenges in industrial demand. Meanwhile, any changes in investor behaviour could add an extra layer of support or challenge to the platinum market in the coming year.

Platinum forecast

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Suki Cooper

Standard Chartered

Range

$835 - $1,200

Average

$1,006

We anticipate another year of shortfalls for the platinum balance and another year of slow price gains. Yet plentiful above-ground stocks have resulted in little upward price pressure. Demand has shown signs of recovering and offered a firmer price floor amid ongoing substitution for palladium in auto-catalysts, an increase in vehicle sales containing PGMs, and relatively slower penetration of BEVs. The build in stocks is perhaps most noticeable in China, where platinum imports have far exceeded estimates of platinum consumption for the fifth straight year. Changes in the Inflation Reduction Act impacting hydrogen and tariffs impacting the supply chain drive costs higher and impact auto demand. On the supply side, production cuts have been muted. The PGM basket price has fallen by 5% over the past year and declined by 44% over the past two years; producers have responded with cost cuts focused on headcount reduction and capex management. We expect production to remain under pressure despite the decline in load shedding in South Africa.

Platinum forecast

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Robin Bhar

Robin Bhar Metals Consulting

Range

$900 - $1,200

Average

$1,010

A platinum market in deficit and a fall in above ground stocks will underpin a rise in platinum prices. Speculative interest is likely to be rekindled on rebounding auto-catalyst demand over the course of the year, with interest switching out of the other precious metals into platinum, on perceived platinum outperformance.

Platinum forecast

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Rhona O'Connell

StoneX Financial Ltd

Range

$870 - $1,050

Average

$1,015

Although the transition towards electrification in the auto sector casts a pall over platinum’s longer-term demand profile, the prospect of fuel cell growth and the continued resurgence of platinum jewellery should lead to higher prices this year and it looks as if it could be the outperformer of the four metals. The jewellery picture is interesting in that for many years most people have had a strict allegiance either to a white metal, or to the yellow one. Price discovery has now overtaken that, however, fuelling renewed interest, notably in China. On the supply side there is still the possibility of disruption as the nickel, palladium and rhodium prices have vastly reduced by-product credits at the South African platinum and Russian nickel mines. While there may not be suspensions of output on that basis, capex has certainly been affected, and the supply profile has shifted accordingly. Platinum is in a deficit and will remain so, helping to underpin a rising price profile.

Platinum forecast

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Debajit Saha

Metals Research, Refinitiv, an LSEG Business

Range

$910 - $1,150

Average

$1,025

Platinum prices are expected to remain stable, supported by slightly improved market fundamentals. In 2025, we anticipate a greater rollout of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), especially in China and Europe. This shift is occurring as consumers show decreasing interest in pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) due to the limited availability of charging stations on highways and a reduction in government subsidies in some markets. Initially, it was believed that the rising demand for BEVs would lead to a decline in the internal combustion engine (ICE) market in major economies. However, the trend indicates that consumers are opting for hybrid vehicles for their convenience, increasing the demand for platinum group metals (PGMs) as catalysts. Despite this changing market behaviour, it is unlikely to revive platinum demand, as BEVs are expected to continue dominating the market. Demand for platinum jewellery in the Asian physical market is likely to remain sluggish, as rising gold prices are attracting more consumers. In terms of other industrial uses, we believe growth will continue at a constant rate, as it has for over a decade.

Platinum forecast

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Emmanuel Munjeri

Bloomberg Intelligence

Range

$930 - $1,130

Average

$1,034

The platinum market deficit will likely be sustained through the decade, boosted by the combination of substituting platinum for palladium and rhodium in autocatalysts, a slower than expected BEV uptake, and sustained industrial demand. New demand – for hydrogen fuel cells in particular – may revive mid- to long-term consumption growth, even as BEVs take more market share, further driving the outlook for higher prices. That said, limited mined supply growth could do little to offset strong demand, as miners restructure operations through the lower price environment. But, with significant above-ground stocks, prices may remain range-bound over the near-term.

Platinum forecast

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Keisuke (Bill) Okui

Sumitomo Corporation

Range

$850 - $1,250

Average

$1,040

Platinum is expected to go higher from both supply and demand perspective. Demand from the auto sector shall slightly recover due to less BEV sales and production. Indian ICE demand also helps. Petrochemical related catalysts and the hydrogen-related economy can also be positively impacted. On the supply side, although the crisis of power generation in South Africa is slightly better compared to previous years, local inflation, water shortages and technological issues in deep mining area remain difficult. Unless PGM prices move higher from here, there are fewer incentives for mining companies to invest continually to expand their production.

Platinum forecast

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Ross Norman

CEO Metals Daily Ltd

Range

$900 - $1,175

Average

$1,046

If price predictions were only a matter of understanding fundamentals, then estimating supply deficits (or surpluses) then surely platinum would be the bookies’ favourite. But life is not like that. The good news is the broad economic outlook looks positive – although China is struggling just now – and with rising industrial production the broad demand for platinum can only rise. This provides a positive backdrop given the diverse range of applications where platinum is involved. More narrowly, last year's structural changes in the market in response to the low basket price for PGMs takes time to come through and these are now starting to bite. Additionally, we expect to see a rowing back in ambitions for net zero and, by extension, EV's with the Trump administration. This would be to platinum's advantage, conferring some resilience to ICE engines and, by extension, revving up sentiment. Meanwhile, the one-off releases of inventory seen in 2024, coupled with high recycling levels, suggests to us that the negative price impacts are behind us, setting the stage for a supply deficit of about 525koz. If we are right, then platinum is set for gains in 2025.

Platinum forecast

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Jonathan Butler

Mitsubishi Corporation

Range

$900 - $1,150

Average

$1,050

Platinum prices are likely to remain largely range-bound, as they have been in 2024, absent a major supply shock. There is likely to be further re-organisation at South African mines, which have been suffering high costs and low revenues, resulting in lower primary supplies in the longer term. The inflationary, pro-manufacturing policies of the new Trump administration are generally positive for platinum demand in the oil refining and petrochemical sectors, and there is likely to be a boost to platinum automotive demand from greater uptake of hybrid powertrains. Demand for platinum in hydrogen applications, though still promising longer term, could suffer as the new US administration focuses on conventional technologies. It may be a mixed picture elsewhere with European and Chinese industrial demand potentially slowing in the wake of trade tariffs, though still with potential for local stimulus measures to help demand.

Platinum forecast

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Nicky Shiels

MKS PAMP SA

Range

$900 - $1,200

Average

$1,050

Fundamental deficits, the drawdown in above-ground stocks and low prices for consecutive years haven’t squared. However, platinum is getting to the inflection point given prices have based, the PGM basket is significantly under the cost curve, and the macro is turning. Continued tightening in 2025 will be driven from supply, as primary supply will be flat-lower (with further cuts or capacity closures a rising risk that hasn’t been priced) while growth in scrap/secondary will be limited. Demand growth in 2025 should continue to be buoyed by hybrids being favored globally ex-China, continued substitution of palladium for platinum, and the upside risk to jewellery demand in China as fiscal and monetary stimulus improves consumer sentiment when platinum is relatively cheap. We remain structurally constructive into easing cycles and economic recoveries, especially now that China has joined the reflation party, and there is little to no supply backstop on incremental demand growth. Overall, after years of being a forgotten asset class, sticky investor interest in PGMs should return as the decline in the US dolla extends, China recovers, and reflation pricing in commodities takes place.

Platinum forecast

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Marcus Garvey

Macquarie Bank Ltd.

Range

$850 - $1,175

Average

$1,069

A structurally challenged supply backdrop has enabled the market to move into persistent forecast deficits, even without strong demand growth. Firmer price performance would likely require further producer discipline, however, especially in the face of a strong US dollar.

Platinum forecast

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James Steel

HSBC

Range

$875 - $1,175

Average

$1,098

Platinum’s underlying fundamentals still look price-supportive, but platinum has proved unable to sustain a rally above USD1,000/oz. It may rally more convincingly this year. Mine supply is moving lower due to low prices and restructuring, led by South Africa and North America. Capex reductions may inhibit output, even in the event of a rally. Auto demand is likely to edge higher based on ongoing substitution with palladium, despite platinum moving to a premium to palladium. Electric vehicle sales are likely to continue to win market share, but at a moderating rate. Jewellery demand is also likely to continue to rise, but from low levels. The outlook for other industrial demand sources appears mostly positive. We expect the market to swing into a wide structural deficit and support prices.

Platinum forecast

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Joni Teves

UBS

Range

$880 - $1,350

Average

$1,100

Platinum prices should gradually rise as the market tightens. We expect a market deficit in 2025, before shortfalls ease in the years ahead. Platinum’s bullish outlook is mainly driven by supply-side factors, in our view. We do not anticipate a strong move higher in prices unless there is a compelling demand growth story. Nevertheless, the continued drawdown in inventories lends the market increasingly vulnerable to supply shocks and better-than-expected demand, which could create near-term price volatility.

Platinum forecast

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Julia Du

ICBC Standard Bank

Range

$850 - $1,300

Average

$1,100

In 2025, platinum prices are expected to fluctuate between $850 and $1,300 per ounce, with an average annual price estimated at around $1,100 per ounce. Positive factors include the potential adverse impact of Trump's return to office on the US electric vehicle market, such as the cancellation of electric vehicle (EV) purchase subsidies and reduced support for EV sales, which would benefit the traditional automotive industry and increase demand for platinum. Additionally, tariffs are limiting the overseas sales of Chinese electric vehicles, while intense competition and price wars in China's EV market have led to the collapse of several car manufacturers, further affecting overall EV sales and sustaining demand for traditional vehicles. High U.S. interest rates may suppress consumer purchasing willingness, and uncertainties in China's pessimistic economic outlook could negatively impact automotive sales and platinum demand. Despite a projected supply shortage, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and a strong dollar may exert downward pressure on prices. Overall, increased automotive demand may not be enough to push platinum prices significantly higher.

— Analysts' average forecast

— Average price year to date

— Average price 2024

— Current price

$650 $850 $1,050 $1,250 $1,450 $1,650

Palladium forecast

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Rhona O'Connell

StoneX Financial Ltd

Range

$870 - $1,115

Average

$906

Palladium remains the poor relation among the precious metals. The shifts in the green transition, with aspirational target dates under threat, consumer resistance, sluggish infrastructure development in places and price discovery all contributing to potential slippage in deadlines. The initial evidence of the fluidity of the change was clear in 2024 with the plug-in hybrids stealing the thunder of the battery-electric vehicles. This has favoured all three major PGMs, especially as the loadings in PHEV internal combustion engines are higher than those in ICE cars. This is but a stay of execution, however, and unless there are significant technological developments over the next few years, palladium continues to face a sombre future. This is informing investor activity, as evidenced by the massive short positions that have rolled in and out of the market over the past twelve months. In early 2025 they are again vastly extended, and this clearly offers the possibility of a change of range on the back of a short covering rally (the speed of the move in 2024 when Stillwater announced a partial closure and restructuring is a case in point). It is also interesting to note that ETF holdings have been increasing, probably on the back of the uncertainty of the vehicle fleet, so palladium has potential short covering on the one side and possible stale bull liquidation on the other.

Palladium forecast

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Peter Fertig

QCR Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd.

Range

$840 - $1,125

Average

$945

Palladium found a bottom and traded sideways in 2024. Prices were again in close vicinity to those of platinum. Also, for palladium the shift towards e-vehicles is a negative factor. In addition, the interest of financial investors is rather low if a market trades sideways and there is no story for rising demand or falling supply. Therefore, a continuation of prices fluctuating within last year’s trading range appears to be the most likely scenario.

Palladium forecast

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Kirill Kirilenko

CRU International

Range

$850 - $1,100

Average

$950

The fundamentals of the palladium market are expected to continue softening in 2025, primarily driven by concerns of oversupply and weak demand growth. A key factor in this trend is the ongoing shift toward vehicle electrification, which reduces the demand for palladium in automotive catalytic converters. As the automotive industry increasingly adopts battery electric vehicles, palladium's heavy reliance on the internal combustion engine market is backfiring, exacerbating the market’s structural imbalances. This transition, coupled with limited growth in demand from other industrial sectors, presents a significant challenge for palladium prices. Overall, growing market liquidity, fuelled by weaker demand and oversupply, suggests that palladium prices are expected to remain under pressure throughout 2025, with limited potential for significant upward movement unless there is a shift in demand dynamics or significant production adjustments.

Palladium forecast

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René Hochreiter

NOAH Capital Markets and Sieberana Research

Range

$900 - $1,050

Average

$950

As 90% of global palladium production is as a by-product, metal supply from Russia and South Africa will continue, putting pressure on prices. This pressure could be offset by firm autocat demand from gasoline and hybrid cars as electric vehicle (EV) demand slows because of poor metrics of owning an EV without large subsidies. With new emissions legislation for light vehicles increasing palladium and rhodium demand by ~10% starting early 2025 in Brazil (Proconve L-8) and North American CARB LEV VII phase-in end 2026 for Euro 7 and US Federal Tier 4, end 2027 for China 7 (estimated by JM) any increase in catalysed car sales due to declining BEV sales and higher loadings from new emissions legislation could see palladium prices starting to rise during 2025.

Palladium forecast

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Bruce Ikemizu

Japan Bullion Market Association

Range

$800 - $1,200

Average

$950

Palladium in 2024 bottomed out at $825. But the upside was quite limited with the general bearish view of the investors who were happy to be short in Nymex because of the drive train change to EV. This trend would continue, also the bottom is firm at $800. So, I expect 2025 again to be in a range market.

Palladium forecast

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Ross Norman

CEO Metals Daily Ltd

Range

$920 - $995

Average

$968

For palladium much of the bad news is already baked into the current price. Fundamentally, demand is declining but mine production has also eased, leaving the palladium market roughly in balance. That said, the smelter rebuild in Russia has been faster than anticipated and hence we expect total mine production to remain relatively static and not a fall as had previously been expected. Under the Trump administration the world will likely become more 'pro-oil' and less 'net zero', which could impact sentiment towards the PGMs positively even though actual demand will lag events. However, any significant price move to the upside will likely be muted given the large above ground stocks which could be readily deployed. After the heady days at a $3,400 level, palladium seems to have found a floor, and while although longer-term fundamentals look positive, they look markedly less bullish than platinum’s.

Palladium forecast

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Marcus Garvey

Macquarie Bank Ltd.

Range

$850 - $1,100

Average

$969

The performance of catalyst bearing hybrid vehicle sales is slowing the pace of demand destruction but, given the implications of still-rising battery electric vehicle sales, producer discipline remains insufficient to remove forward surplus projections.

Palladium forecast

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Emmanuel Munjeri

Bloomberg Intelligence

Range

$900 - $1,050

Average

$970

Rising battery vehicle sales and mounting recycled supply paint a grim medium-term outlook for palladium, with the market tilting toward multiyear surpluses from 2027. Yet risks to primary supply could keep the market in a larger deficit in the near term, offsetting a decrease in demand. Mines operating at the margin needing to restructure may keep the near-time fundamental picture in view, with the metal finding some downside protection, as the long-term sentiment-induced price plunge finds a floor through the year.

Palladium forecast

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Kieran Tompkins

Capital Economics

Range

$800 - $1,200

Average

$990

We also anticipate the rollout of electric vehicles (EVs) to be a major headwind to demand for palladium. Admittedly, the take-up of EVs in the west is in the midst of stalling. But EV sales in China have surged and, in any case, even non-EV sales are unlikely to strengthen much amid interest rates staying higher-for-longer, limiting any boost to palladium demand. On the supply front, the risk of US sanctions that have been threatened in recent months or self-imposed limits on Russia’s exports of palladium is a key upside risk to prices.

Palladium forecast

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Debajit Saha

Metals Research, Refinitiv, an LSEG Business

Range

$825 - $1,251

Average

$995

Palladium prices are expected to remain flat in 2025, as ICE vehicles are predicted to lose market share to electric vehicles (EVs). Adding to the challenges of an already subdued price is the increase in supply from secondary sources. A significant volume of cars produced since 2013 will begin to reach the end of their life cycle in 2025, as stringent pollution regulations have resulted in higher platinum group metal (PGM) loadings, which can now be recovered and supplied back to the market.

Palladium forecast

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Suki Cooper

Standard Chartered

Range

$800 - $1,275

Average

$999

We expect palladium to remain undersupplied in 2025, but the balance could swing in either direction given (1) the bulk of primary supply is still loss-making and Russia’s supply is due to recover in 2025 after a smelter rebuild (geopolitical tensions easing in Russia-Ukraine could support further supply growth); (2) potential changes to tariffs and clean energy initiatives could both increase the market share of ICE vehicles containing PGM-loaded auto-catalysts but also decrease the number of vehicles sold if inflationary pressures increase the retail price of vehicles; and (3) a potential resurgence of interest in the used car market if new vehicle prices surge, resulting in fewer scrapped vehicles and reduced secondary supply of palladium. Secondary supply is expected to recover modestly. Despite market anticipation of a shift back to bi-metal auto-catalysts given lower palladium prices, palladium continues to lose market share given ongoing substitution, replacing palladium content with platinum in auto-catalysts, as well as the declining market share of ICE. We continue to expect platinum and palladium to trade close to parity, with palladium trading at a sustained discount by year end. A short-covering rally continues to pose upside risk for palladium given the rebuild in short positions at the end of 2024.

Palladium forecast

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Robin Bhar

Robin Bhar Metals Consulting

Range

$900 - $1,300

Average

$1,000

Demand for palladium in the automotive industry – the largest customer at more than 80% – is expected to remain subdued. Overall, supply remains in a shortfall, keeping the metal in deficit in 2025. However, the rate of substitution and continued thrifting of palladium is likely to hamper demand.

Palladium forecast

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Julia Du

ICBC Standard Bank

Range

$800 - $1,200

Average

$1,000

In 2025, palladium prices are anticipated to range between $800 and $1,200 per ounce, with an average annual price projected at around $1,000. Similar to platinum, palladium may benefit from a potential slowdown in electric vehicle sales, which could bolster traditional automotive demand. Additionally, if Trump implements policies that negatively impact the EV market – such as eliminating purchase subsidies – this could further support the traditional automotive sector. However, the demand for palladium is limited by the increasing use of platinum as a substitute. Additionally, the high interest rate environment in the US could dampen consumer purchasing power, adversely affecting overall vehicle sales. Uncertainties in China's economic outlook, particularly regarding sluggish growth and low consumer confidence, may also weigh on demand. Overall, while there are factors that could support palladium prices, the competitive pressures from platinum and broader economic uncertainties contribute to a more cautious outlook compared to platinum's forecast.

Palladium forecast

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James Steel

HSBC

Range

$880 - $1,125

Average

$1,002

We are only mildly bullish on palladium’s price prospects for 2025. Declines in auto demand due to electric vehicle encroachment and substitution with platinum are eroding palladium’s principal source of demand, and we look for further declines in that regard this year. Other forms of industrial demand are not inspiring. Investor sentiment is less negative, however, as ETFs are accumulating metal once more. More importantly perhaps, massive net short positions on the CME of more than 1moz have been reduced, but are still high. Further short covering could boost prices. Russian supply is still reaching the market, but low prices are discouraging increases in mine output globally, including South Africa. North American output, in particular, is set to drop further. We look for the market to move from a wide to a narrower supply/demand deficit.

Palladium forecast

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Wilma Swarts

Metals Focus

Range

$800 - $1,200

Average

$1,010

The palladium price this year will continue to balance precariously between opportunity and crisis. Despite a healthy deficit of 815koz in 2024, the price shed a further 26%, confirming that fundamentals are no longer the primary driver of prices. Instead, the outlook is shaped by investor and trader sentiment, which remains bearish due to electrification and increasing secondary supply, despite the emergence of some near-term tailwinds. Towards end-2024, the net CME managed money position returned to around 1Moz short, reflecting market pessimism. While reports suggest that the new US administration’s revision of battery electric vehicle incentives may benefit fossil-fuelled sales, resolution to the war in Ukraine could unlock previously sanctioned and self-sanctioned Russian palladium, releasing flows to Western markets and weighing on the palladium price. We expect the overhang of short positions, combined with lower industrial stocks, to drive volatility, with a 2025 annual average price of $1,010 and a broad range of $800 to $1,200 amid heightened uncertainty.

Palladium forecast

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Jonathan Butler

Mitsubishi Corporation

Range

$800 - $1,200

Average

$1,025

We see modestly higher palladium prices in 2025, albeit still largely within last year’s range, with the possibility that covering of speculative short futures positioning could bring sharp temporary upside. On palladium supplies, the key swing factor is whether an end to the war in Ukraine will bring a lifting of restrictions on Russian metal flows, thus easing physical tightness in Europe and the US. Palladium supplies from South Africa are likely to be flat to lower in 2025, while we see an increase in supplies of recycled material in line with higher prices. The automotive sector should experience higher demand for palladium in ICE and hybrid powertrains, especially if support for battery electric vehicles is scaled back in the US, but the positive aspects of this may be tempered by tariff-related slowdowns in non-US markets.

Palladium forecast

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Nicky Shiels

MKS PAMP SA

Range

$850 - $1,300

Average

$1,050

Primary supply should remain unchanged as Russian supply recovers after its smelter rebuild, offsetting reduced output in North America and South Africa. Upside price risk stems from potential sanction risk on Russian material, given recent US comments and the growing risk of Trump policy on the auto sector. Secondary supply is expected to be subdued, barring a large upside price rerating or significantly lower interest rates. Light-duty vehicle sales are forecast to rise in 2025, and so automotive palladium demand should increase as more ICE and hybrids are sold than estimated in a Trump era. The persistent net short futures positioning – largely hinging on ‘the death of ICE’ – will be tested in 2025 on slower EV penetration trends, hybrid continuation, and the threat of Trump emission regulation/policy/tariff changes. The compressed range in 2024 cannot last – there will be tactical bullish opportunities and volatile trading in 2025.

Palladium forecast

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Keisuke (Bill) Okui

Sumitomo Corporation

Range

$850 - $1,350

Average

$1,060

Palladium is expected to go higher. Market participants have been overly negative last year on this metal as the growth of BEVs have been significant, and expectedly so. Currently, however, the auto sector is seeing less growth on BEVs and is relying heavily on hybrids and ICE engines which consume a fair amount of platinum group metals. As the price of palladium could not clearly break below $800/oz we may not expect too many speculative positions to go short, either. Looking at the recycling sector, we should see slight recovery from China but this is not big enough to move the price down. The downside scenario is a rapid recovery in BEV demand and lower sales of hybrids or ICE vehicles.

Palladium forecast

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Joni Teves

UBS

Range

$850 - $1,300

Average

$1,090

Palladium prices are likely to continue consolidating within a broad range, with scope for interim spikes. Demand should stabilise over the next couple of years before resuming modest declines. Meanwhile, declines in mine output should be offset by recycling to result in modest supply growth. We continue to think prices around <$900 look cheap, while prices >$1,200 start to look expensive. The persistence of short positioning raises the risk of short-squeezes, especially given inventories have been drawn down over the past several years.

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