Alexander Zumpfe

Gold's upward momentum is expected to continue in 2025, driven by geopolitical uncertainties, inflationary pressures, and the global economic environment. Central banks are anticipated to remain net buyers, though at a slightly reduced pace compared to previous years. Additionally, the weakening of the US dollar due to monetary policy easing and potential recession risks in the US further strengthens gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. A robust jewellery demand in India and a potential recovery in Chinese consumption also provide support.

The three main drivers for gold:

1. Central bank purchases and geopolitical risks.
2. Inflation and real interest rate trends.
3. US monetary policy and dollar performance.

Silver's dual role as a precious and industrial metal positions it for strong performance in 2025. Increased demand from the photovoltaic sector and electronic applications, particularly in China, will underpin its price. The gold-silver ratio suggests that silver remains undervalued, indicating further room for upside. However, potential economic slowdowns in key markets may temper industrial demand. Despite these risks, silver's higher beta relative to gold ensures it outperforms in bullish precious metal markets.

Platinum will continue to benefit from its growing role in industrial applications, including the automotive sector's transition to hydrogen fuel cells and catalysts. Substitution of palladium with platinum in catalytic converters is expected to grow, adding to the demand. However, large above-ground stockpiles and a sluggish recovery in Chinese jewelry demand will limit upward momentum. Increased recycling and stable production from South Africa add supply-side pressure, keeping prices in a defined range.

Palladium is forecasted to stabilise in 2025 after years of price volatility. A balanced market is anticipated, with modest growth in primary and secondary supply offsetting a slight decline in automotive demand due to the rise of electric vehicles. Industrial applications, including electronics and chemical catalysts, provide marginal support. The substitution of palladium with platinum in catalysts and persistent bearish sentiment may constrain price recovery.