Bernard Dahdah

Gold prices will continue to rise on the back of global rate cuts, central bank and Chinese consumer demand. On the back of Trump’s inflationary tariffs, US rate cuts are set to be less steep than what markets had expected in the second half of 2024 and although gold prices are set to rise, the increase will come at a slower pace than the previous year. Central bank demand will remain close to 2024 levels with the continued de-dollarisation efforts by those which are not friendly with the western bloc (mainly concerns steaming from the freezing of Russian assets following the Ukraine invasion). We also see a return in Western investor demand which will lead to positive flows into physically backed ETFs. Top three drivers: 1. Fed rates 2. Central bank demand 3. Western investor demand

The classic correlation between gold and silver will remain strong, with gold driving the direction. The energy transition related commodity market is likely to have a bumpy ride on the back of Trump’s arrival. That said, demand for silver will remain relatively strong especially in the solar panel sector which, even without subsidies, is already cost competitive.