Chantelle Schieven

Many of the same factors that drove the gold price higher in 2024 will likely also be positive for gold in 2025. Two of these key factors are central bank gold demand and geopolitical/financial uncertainty. Central bank demand for gold continues to be strong. Uncertainty in the geopolitical and financial environment has increased significantly in recent months. Gold could literally surge at any time on the back of any number of crises over the next several years. Increased economic and financial uncertainty could arise as markets question the ability of governments to service high debt levels. The impact of rising global debt on macroeconomic policy (monetary/fiscal) and on economic growth moves along at a glacial speed. Eventually, it undermines confidence in a government’s ability to deal not only with normal cyclical economic developments but most certainly with any crisis development, such as a pandemic or military, which calls for unusual fiscal support. To be sure, debt levels have risen everywhere, it is not just a US phenomenon. Indeed, to the degree it might undermine the dollar, it undermines other currencies as well.