Christopher Louney

While our 2025 outlook is slightly lower than it was previously, gold’s role as a hedge in times of uncertainty, a perceived inflation hedge, and both a diversifier and a risk overlay, can all benefit gold as we march into the coming year full of unknowns. Abundant political and geopolitical risks, US exceptionalism, and the TBD nature of what US policies are enacted after the Red Sweep leave the door open for gold investment. This extends into 2026. While early risk-on flows may not have benefited gold, potential trade conflict, inflation, market volatility, and geopolitical risk all may support gold through our forecast horizon. We note that the upside beyond our forecasts is likely capped around our high scenario. We think the floor for gold, assuming that all of the gold-negative risks pan out and consumers, central banks, and investors sour on gold, is closer to our low. Three most important factors that you think will impact on the gold price in 2025. 1. Fed and interest rates 2. Risk and uncertainty driving investor flows 3. Central banks continuing to buy