Joni Teves

Gold's rally should extend, as the Fed continues to cut rates and 10 year real yields fall. Uncertainty around growth, inflation, fiscal policy, persistent geopolitical tensions and the risk of trade wars underpin the demand for gold as a portfolio diversifier and hedge. Growing strategic allocations should drive prices higher, underpinned by continued official sector purchases and resilient fundamental demand.

We expect silver to outperform as investor interest picks up in an environment of rising gold prices, Fed policy easing and compelling silver supply/demand dynamics. Silver could additionally get a boost from higher commodity prices, given its link to industrial metals. That said, downside risks could come from the potential for a sharper slowdown in growth amid higher global tariffs and /or wider risk-off sentiment acting as a drag for industrial commodities.

Platinum prices should gradually rise as the market tightens. We expect a market deficit in 2025, before shortfalls ease in the years ahead. Platinum’s bullish outlook is mainly driven by supply-side factors, in our view. We do not anticipate a strong move higher in prices unless there is a compelling demand growth story. Nevertheless, the continued drawdown in inventories lends the market increasingly vulnerable to supply shocks and better-than-expected demand, which could create near-term price volatility.

Palladium prices are likely to continue consolidating within a broad range, with scope for interim spikes. Demand should stabilise over the next couple of years before resuming modest declines. Meanwhile, declines in mine output should be offset by recycling to result in modest supply growth. We continue to think prices around <$900 look cheap, while prices >$1,200 start to look expensive. The persistence of short positioning raises the risk of short-squeezes, especially given inventories have been drawn down over the past several years.