2025 Precious Metals Forecast Survey

Keisuke (Bill) Okui

Sumitomo Corporation

Take a look at the analysts' individual forecasts and commentary, revealing their insights behind their forecasts for highs, lows, and average prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price year to date

— Average price 2024

— Current price

$2,200 $2,300 $2,400 $2,500 $2,600 $2,700 $2,800 $2,900 $3,000 $3,100 $3,200 $3,300 $3,400 $3,500
 

Range

$2,550 - $3,200

Average

$2,925

Gold is expected to go higher due to continuous buying from private sectors and central banks. More people will have access to gold ETFs and gold futures contracts all over the world and this will support the price in 2025. These buying interests generally come from the fear of uncertainties ahead including disputes and conflicts. The amount of cash floating in the market is also helping the price not to come off. The downside concerns are USD interest rates and the gold price itself. Not many market participants are expecting USD interest rates to continuously go lower. The price of gold itself is already relatively very high compared to the previous year; it is already inflated and there’s potential for asset reallocation especially towards things like crypto currencies and away from gold. Quantitative tapering from major central banks can also be a key factor for the downside to assets in general including gold. Three most important factors I think will impact on the gold price in 2025 1. USD interest rates 2. Gold accumulation by Central Banks 3. QT by major Central Banks

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price year to date

— Average price 2024

— Current price

$22 $26 $30 $34 $38 $42 $46
 

Range

$28 - $38.50

Average

$34.90

Silver is expected to go higher, following the price of gold. In the case of silver, the buying interests should come from both investment and industrial demand. The reasons behind investment demand are the same as those of gold. As for industrials, continuous PV related demand as well as electrical appliances usage should support this metal. Downside risks, however, are tough economic circumstances especially in China where they may require less silver for industrial use. Higher interest rate is another key to silver performance as it simply leads to less investment demand and reduced demand in the property market – which may lead to less solar panels used for the housing sector.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price year to date

— Average price 2024

— Current price

$700 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400
 

Range

$850 - $1,250

Average

$1,040

Platinum is expected to go higher from both supply and demand perspective. Demand from the auto sector shall slightly recover due to less BEV sales and production. Indian ICE demand also helps. Petrochemical related catalysts and the hydrogen-related economy can also be positively impacted. On the supply side, although the crisis of power generation in South Africa is slightly better compared to previous years, local inflation, water shortages and technological issues in deep mining area remain difficult. Unless PGM prices move higher from here, there are fewer incentives for mining companies to invest continually to expand their production.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price year to date

— Average price 2024

— Current price

$650 $850 $1,050 $1,250 $1,450 $1,650
 

Range

$850 - $1,350

Average

$1,060

Palladium is expected to go higher. Market participants have been overly negative last year on this metal as the growth of BEVs have been significant, and expectedly so. Currently, however, the auto sector is seeing less growth on BEVs and is relying heavily on hybrids and ICE engines which consume a fair amount of platinum group metals. As the price of palladium could not clearly break below $800/oz we may not expect too many speculative positions to go short, either. Looking at the recycling sector, we should see slight recovery from China but this is not big enough to move the price down. The downside scenario is a rapid recovery in BEV demand and lower sales of hybrids or ICE vehicles.