2025 Precious Metals Forecast Survey

Nicky Shiels

MKS PAMP SA

Take a look at the analysts' individual forecasts and commentary, revealing their insights behind their forecasts for highs, lows, and average prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price year to date

— Average price 2024

— Current price

$2,200 $2,300 $2,400 $2,500 $2,600 $2,700 $2,800 $2,900 $3,000 $3,100 $3,200 $3,300 $3,400 $3,500
 

Range

$2,500 - $3,200

Average

$2,750

Gold is in secular bull market, but the direction of travel won’t be as one-directional in 2025 as in 2024. Peak political fear is behind us following Trump’s decisive win, compounded by the US focus on deregulation, tax cuts, and tariffs (not wars). Central bank buying trends will continue at similar pace in 2025 vs. 2024, but flows will remain more discreet given the threat of Trump tariffs on countries perceived to be actively de-dollarising. Investment demand is likely to be muted again given the high cost of carry, while physical demand should remain robust given ongoing debasement trends. DM retail demand is expected to remain soft as risk appetite is channeled into other asset classes. Gold prices at $3,000+ or $2,500- is contingent on whether the Fed is ahead or behind the ‘Trumpflation’ curve; we expect them to be behind, leading to falling real rates and a softer US dollar in the latter half of the year. Structurally, the positive feedback loop of HFL inflation, ongoing deglobalisation/currency debasement/central bank de-dollarisation, messy and unpredictable geopolitics, unsustainable global debt paths, and an under-owned general investor community ensures that gold remains a safe asset diversifier. But expect volatile price action where the risk of a bear case (a new and growing narrative) superseding the bull case (which is getting stale and increasingly priced in) is rising. Gold’s top three driving factors: 1. Central Bank demand 2. Fed rate cuts 3. Investor participation

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price year to date

— Average price 2024

— Current price

$22 $26 $30 $34 $38 $42 $46
 

Range

$28 - $42

Average

$36.50

Silver is to outperform all precious metals in 2025 given synchronised central bank rate cuts, a more supportive China and US macroeconomic backdrop, still strong solar demand, and ultimately a lower US$ trajectory. Another strong rerating toward $40 is required to entice notoriously sticky holders to release metal as industrial demand remains robust and persistent. Silver’s upside will still hinge on investor participation outweighing any potential contraction in global industrial demand due the threat of Trump tariffs. Investment demand—both institutional and retail—should outpace the mild inflows seen in 2024. The same bullish argument from 2024 is now even more applicable: silver has more upside risk than gold because 1) it is relatively cheaper vs. its past price peaks, 2) is more elastic to a weaker US$ environment and a reflation upcycle, and 3) it is physically tighter with less readily available stocks. Fundamentally, deficits are expected throughout this decade, and its high beta characteristic vs. gold is attractive in a synchronised rate-cutting cycle. The gold/silver ratio should fall to 80 and target 75, levels associated with the 2021 reflation / COVID-19 reopening macro era.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price year to date

— Average price 2024

— Current price

$700 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400
 

Range

$900 - $1,200

Average

$1,050

Fundamental deficits, the drawdown in above-ground stocks and low prices for consecutive years haven’t squared. However, platinum is getting to the inflection point given prices have based, the PGM basket is significantly under the cost curve, and the macro is turning. Continued tightening in 2025 will be driven from supply, as primary supply will be flat-lower (with further cuts or capacity closures a rising risk that hasn’t been priced) while growth in scrap/secondary will be limited. Demand growth in 2025 should continue to be buoyed by hybrids being favored globally ex-China, continued substitution of palladium for platinum, and the upside risk to jewellery demand in China as fiscal and monetary stimulus improves consumer sentiment when platinum is relatively cheap. We remain structurally constructive into easing cycles and economic recoveries, especially now that China has joined the reflation party, and there is little to no supply backstop on incremental demand growth. Overall, after years of being a forgotten asset class, sticky investor interest in PGMs should return as the decline in the US dolla extends, China recovers, and reflation pricing in commodities takes place.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price year to date

— Average price 2024

— Current price

$650 $850 $1,050 $1,250 $1,450 $1,650
 

Range

$850 - $1,300

Average

$1,050

Primary supply should remain unchanged as Russian supply recovers after its smelter rebuild, offsetting reduced output in North America and South Africa. Upside price risk stems from potential sanction risk on Russian material, given recent US comments and the growing risk of Trump policy on the auto sector. Secondary supply is expected to be subdued, barring a large upside price rerating or significantly lower interest rates. Light-duty vehicle sales are forecast to rise in 2025, and so automotive palladium demand should increase as more ICE and hybrids are sold than estimated in a Trump era. The persistent net short futures positioning – largely hinging on ‘the death of ICE’ – will be tested in 2025 on slower EV penetration trends, hybrid continuation, and the threat of Trump emission regulation/policy/tariff changes. The compressed range in 2024 cannot last – there will be tactical bullish opportunities and volatile trading in 2025.