Nikos Kavalis

Bullish gold market conditions should prevail during the first half of 2025. Further US rate cuts, elevated inflation, tax cuts helping US equities, uncertainty over US trade and foreign policy, geopolitical tensions and strong central bank buying will all support the gold price. Meanwhile, investor involvement in gold remains short of previous peaks, particularly when measured as a share of overall assets. We therefore believe there is still scope for fresh inflows, which should take the price to a new all-time record of $3,000/oz. By the second half of the year, a likely slowdown or pause in US rate cuts, easing US equity prices and growing clarity over US policy, should all weigh on gold. Still, risks to global markets and geopolitical tensions will remain elevated and central bank buying will continue. Gold prices will remain elevated and the full year average of $2,600/oz will be another all-time record and 9% higher year-on-year.