2025 Precious Metals Forecast Survey

Suki Cooper

Standard Chartered

Take a look at the analysts' individual forecasts and commentary, revealing their insights behind their forecasts for highs, lows, and average prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price year to date

— Average price 2024

— Current price

$2,200 $2,300 $2,400 $2,500 $2,600 $2,700 $2,800 $2,900 $3,000 $3,100 $3,200 $3,300 $3,400 $3,500
 

Range

$2,400 - $3,000

Average

$2,781

We think price risks are still skewed to the upside and we expect gold to set further record highs. The signals for gold price action have become less clear in an environment of a strong USD, scaled back rate-cut expectations and inflation concerns given tariff risk in a second Trump administration, as well as heightened uncertainty. Prices are unlikely to embark on in a singular upward path. In our view, three factors will be key for gold: 1. Central bank demand 2. Resurgence of investor appetite 3. Inflation risk. While expectations of tariffs and their inflationary impact are likely to buoy interest in gold longer-term, gold looks set to take its cue from the USD in the short term. Official-sector demand will remain crucial to further gains as investor appetite is likely to ebb and flow. An uptick in buying in Q4-2024 suggests that higher prices have not deterred additions to gold reserves. We expect demand to remain healthy in 2025, helping to plug the shortfall in investment demand. Central bank demand will likely remain by far the most significant factor determining gold price risk in 2025.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price year to date

— Average price 2024

— Current price

$22 $26 $30 $34 $38 $42 $46
 

Range

$26.50 - $40

Average

$34.63

The silver market is set to remain undersupplied in 2025, but a deficit alone will not be sufficient to drive upside price risk for silver, in our view. Even amid concerns over potential tariffs and shallower rate cuts, we expect industrial demand for silver to grow; however, investment demand has struggled to keep pace in recent months. Fundamentally, the silver market is in a different place now compared with the first Trump administration. In 2016, despite silver ETP inflows, the market was in surplus and recovering from levels where primary production was at risk of being placed on care and maintenance. Importantly, industrial demand has grown by 43% over the past eight years to fresh record highs, and now accounts for 84% of primary supply (compared with 54% in 2016). In other words, the silver market has a much more robust floor that has been driven by clean energy initiatives, such as solar demand and vehicle electrification. Potential changes to initiatives may dampen demand growth for BEVs or solar energy; this could soften appetite for silver. China’s PV demand has been a key driver and could slow in 2025, but countries outside China are adding to capacity.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price year to date

— Average price 2024

— Current price

$700 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400
 

Range

$835 - $1,200

Average

$1,006

We anticipate another year of shortfalls for the platinum balance and another year of slow price gains. Yet plentiful above-ground stocks have resulted in little upward price pressure. Demand has shown signs of recovering and offered a firmer price floor amid ongoing substitution for palladium in auto-catalysts, an increase in vehicle sales containing PGMs, and relatively slower penetration of BEVs. The build in stocks is perhaps most noticeable in China, where platinum imports have far exceeded estimates of platinum consumption for the fifth straight year. Changes in the Inflation Reduction Act impacting hydrogen and tariffs impacting the supply chain drive costs higher and impact auto demand. On the supply side, production cuts have been muted. The PGM basket price has fallen by 5% over the past year and declined by 44% over the past two years; producers have responded with cost cuts focused on headcount reduction and capex management. We expect production to remain under pressure despite the decline in load shedding in South Africa.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price year to date

— Average price 2024

— Current price

$650 $850 $1,050 $1,250 $1,450 $1,650
 

Range

$800 - $1,275

Average

$999

We expect palladium to remain undersupplied in 2025, but the balance could swing in either direction given (1) the bulk of primary supply is still loss-making and Russia’s supply is due to recover in 2025 after a smelter rebuild (geopolitical tensions easing in Russia-Ukraine could support further supply growth); (2) potential changes to tariffs and clean energy initiatives could both increase the market share of ICE vehicles containing PGM-loaded auto-catalysts but also decrease the number of vehicles sold if inflationary pressures increase the retail price of vehicles; and (3) a potential resurgence of interest in the used car market if new vehicle prices surge, resulting in fewer scrapped vehicles and reduced secondary supply of palladium. Secondary supply is expected to recover modestly. Despite market anticipation of a shift back to bi-metal auto-catalysts given lower palladium prices, palladium continues to lose market share given ongoing substitution, replacing palladium content with platinum in auto-catalysts, as well as the declining market share of ICE. We continue to expect platinum and palladium to trade close to parity, with palladium trading at a sustained discount by year end. A short-covering rally continues to pose upside risk for palladium given the rebuild in short positions at the end of 2024.