2025 Precious Metals Forecast Survey
At a glance
Welcome to the 2025 LBMA Annual Precious Metals Forecast Survey. A summary of all forecasts can be found below, and you can find more detail on each analyst's forecasts and commentary on the 'Analysts forecasts' tab above. The '2010-2025 performance' tab shows the forecasts and actual average prices year by year.
Actual Annual Prices 2010-2024 and Analysts’ 2025 Average Forecasts (US $ oz)
Analysts in this year’s survey submitted their forecasts by close of business on 13 January 2025, giving the 30 analysts the opportunity to observe eight days of trading before confirming their contributions.
Key Takeaways
Gold outlook:
This year’s forecast has seen bullish price forecasts submitted by analysts, who collectively expect gold to outperform 2024 with an average price of $2,736.69 – 14.7% higher than the average price* for 2024 ($2,386.20), and just $51 lower than the record gold price for 2024 ($2,788.54 – AM auction, October 30). A wide forecast trading range, however, indicates analysts are expecting significant price volatility. Furthermore, no analyst has forecast an average price above $3,000, but 20 analysts see a high price of $3,000 or above.
Most bullish: Keisuke (Bill) Okui (Sumitomo Corp) – average forecast of $2,925
Most bearish: Robin Bhar (Robin Bhar Metals Consulting) - average forecast of $2,500
Silver outlook:
Analysts expect silver to follow in gold’s bullish path this year, with an average forecast price of $32.86, 16% greater than the actual average price in 2024.
Most bullish: Nicky Shiels (MKS PAMP SA) - average forecast of $36.50
Most bearish: Nicholas Frappell (ABC Refinery) - average forecast of $28.25
Platinum outlook:
The forecasts for platinum reveal low expectations, with an average price predicted by the analysts of $1,021.64 – just $65 greater than the actual price average for 2024, revealing a similarly bearish sentiment to the 2024 forecast.
Most bullish: Julia Du (ICBC Standard Bank) and Joni Teves (UBS) – both average forecasts of $1,100
Most bearish: Kieran Tompkins (Capital Economics) - average forecast of $920
Palladium outlook:
Analysts reflect concerns of oversupply and weak demand growth for palladium, with an average forecast of $991 – barely scraping above the actual average for 2024 of $983, which itself was a large drop from the 2023 average price of $1,337.39.
Most bullish: Joni Teves (UBS) - average forecast of $1,090
Most bearish: Rhona O’Connell (Stonex Financial Ltd) - average forecast of $906
Key Drivers
As ever, analysts were asked to identify their top three drivers for the price of gold in 2025.
The top three drivers were identified as:
- US Fed policy (28%)
- Central bank demand (21%)
- Geopolitical risks/uncertainty (15%)
As identified by the analysts, the Fed’s activity in 2025 could hold the key to gold’s fortunes. If the Fed raises interest rates, this could put downward pressure on gold prices. On the other hand, if rates are lowered or if the Fed maintains a dovish stance to support economic growth, it could make gold more appealing as an alternative investment, potentially driving prices higher. If the Fed signals concerns about rising inflation and takes action to combat it, gold prices could rise as investors seek protection from currency devaluation. If the Fed’s policies are perceived as too loose and inflation expectations rise, gold may also benefit.
As one of the most bullish analysts for gold, with the third highest average forecast for 2025 of $2,875, Chantelle Schieven (Capitalight Research) said in her commentary: “Many of the same factors that drove the gold price higher in 2024 will likely also be positive for gold in 2025.”
While Nicky Shiels (MKS PAMP SA) – whose average forecast of $2,750, just above the median forecast of $2,732.50 – puts it, “Gold prices at $3,000+ or $2,500- is contingent on whether the Fed is ahead or behind the ‘Trumpflation’ curve.”
Central bank demand is identified as the second-most important driver for gold in 2025. Central bank buying significantly increases demand, positively impacts market sentiment, and speculative activity further drives up prices.
The relationship between geopolitical risks and central bank activity is neatly expressed by Grant Sporre (Bloomberg) – whose average gold forecast is $2,727 – in his commentary: “Geopolitical risks are likely to stay elevated with Trump's return to the White House unlikely to be a calming influence, which could see central banks, especially those in emerging markets, continue to add gold to their reserves at a brisk rate.”
Regarding geopolitical instability as a driver, it’s clear that in times of trouble, gold becomes even more valuable. From the beginning of February 2024 – the month during which the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East gained pace – to the end of March, the gold price saw an 8% increase in the gold price – from $2,045.85 to $2,214.35 (LBMA PM prices).
Furthermore, in the broader commentary, there were no fewer than 33 mentions of US President Donald Trump, citing concerns over geopolitical instability, trade policies and relations, and how Trump’s tenure may result in gold continuing to uphold its reputation as a safe haven asset.
Summary of the analysts' commentary
Gold forecast
It has been impossible to miss the headlines that the yellow metal made in 2024 with gold reaching record after record prices, fuelled by inflation concerns, expectations for US interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, central bank buying, weakening US dollar and investment demand – to name a few key drivers.
Clearly expecting 2025 to follow suit, our analysts forecast an average price for gold in 2025 of $2,736.7 – 14.7% higher than the average price* for 2024 ($2,386.20), and just $51 lower than the record gold price for 2024 ($2,788.54 – AM auction, October 30). Considering the average high forecast by analysts was $3,062.35, and the maximum high of $3,290 submitted by none other than 2024’s gold forecast winner Chantelle Schieven (Capitalight Research), it’s safe to assume analysts are expecting yet another bumper year for gold.
Gold is forecast to trade between $2,250.00 (the lowest low) and $3,290.00 (the highest high) this year. This trading range of $1,040.00 is significantly larger than the 2024 range forecast of around $624, suggesting some price volatility is expected this year.
Keisuke (Bill) Okui (Sumitomo Corp) is the most bullish analyst this year with his average forecast of $2,925. Most bearish is Robin Bhar (Robin Bhar Metals Consulting) with his average forecast of $2,500.
*LBMA PM Gold Price
Silver forecast
The average forecast for silver in 2025 of $32.86 reveals a bullish analyst outlook, some 16% greater than the actual average price in 2024 of $28.27. This optimistic stance is backed up by expectations of continued strong industrial and investment demand, and silver’s habit of treading a similar path to gold, a metal for which analysts have high hopes this year. Furthermore, concerns over a growing supply and demand imbalance and monetary policy easing by central banks all point to continued increased investor interest.
With price expectations between $24.00 (lowest low) and $43.50 (highest high) – a range of $19.50 – a volatile trading range is anticipated. In fact, the highest high forecast for 2025 of $43.50 by Debajit Saha (London Stock Exchange Group) is 26% higher than the highest actual price for silver in 2024 of $34.51 (23 October).
Most bullish of the analysts this year for silver is Nicky Shiels (MKS PAMP SA) with her average forecast of $36.50, who said in her full commentary: “Silver is to outperform all precious metals in 2025 given synchronised central bank rate cuts, a more supportive China and US macroeconomic backdrop, still strong solar demand, and ultimately a lower US dollar trajectory.”
Meanwhile, Nicholas Frappell (ABC Refinery) is this year’s most bearish analyst with his $28.25 average forecast.
Platinum forecast
The forecasts for platinum reveal low expectations, with an average price forecast of $1,021.64 – just $65 greater than the actual price average for 2024. This reveals a similar bearish sentiment to last year’s forecast survey.
The lacklustre forecasts for platinum reflect the expectation that the platinum market will soften as supply is forecast to grow faster than demand. And with few significant new industrial applications on the horizon and investor interest remaining moderate, driving prices higher will be challenging.
The trading range – the difference between the lowest low and the highest high forecast – is forecast to be $550, lower than the actual trading range in 2024 of $872.
Julia Du (ICBC Standard Bank) and Joni Teves (UBS) jointly assume the most bullish position with their average matching forecasts of $1,100.
Meanwhile, at the other end of the scale, Kieran Tompkins (Capital Economics) forecast a $920 price average for platinum. Kieran said in his full commentary: “The rollout of electric vehicles (EVs) will weigh on demand for platinum. Admittedly, the take-up of EVs in the west is in the midst of stalling and greater use of hybrid vehicles will be supportive of platinum. But EV sales in China have surged and, in any case, even non-EV sales are unlikely to strengthen much amid interest rates staying higher for longer, limiting any boost to platinum demand.”
Palladium forecast
Analysts’ forecasts for 2025 reveal that palladium prices will likely be hampered by concerns of oversupply and weak demand. The average forecast is $991 – barely scraping above the actual average for 2024 of $983, which itself was a large drop from the 2023 average price of $1,337.39.
However, a few analysts do wonder whether the palladium market is broadly balanced given palladium demand is dropping, mine production is easing – and whether the bad news is already baked into the current price.
Joni Teves (UBS) – who won the silver forecast for 2024 – takes sole bull spot this time with her forecast of $1,090. She reasoned in her commentary: “Palladium prices are likely to continue consolidating within a broad range, with scope for interim spikes. Demand should stabilise over the next couple of years before resuming modest declines.”
Rhona O’Connell (StoneX Financial Ltd) forecast an average of $906, making her the least optimistic of the bunch.
Top 3 drivers for the gold price in 2025
We would like to thank all contributors from across the global precious metals market for taking part in the 2025 survey, and MKS PAMP GROUP for sponsoring this year's prizes.
Rules of the Game
In each metal category, the analyst whose average price is closest to the actual average price in 2025 will win a 1oz gold bar.
In the event of a tie-break, where two or more analysts are equally close to the average, our winner will be the one whose high-low forecast is most closely aligned to the actual price range for 2025.
Disclaimer
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Forecast 2025 is published by LBMA. For further information please contact London Bullion Market Association, 7th Floor, 62 Threadneedle Street, London, EC2R 8HP Telephone: 020 7796 3067 Email: mail@lbma.org.uk www.lbma.org.uk