I expect 2026 to be a year of heightened geopolitical risk and strong safe-haven demand, allowing gold to continue the volatile yet upward trend. Central banks are likely to keep adding to reserves, institutional investors will increase portfolio allocations, and retail demand – especially in Latin America – should remain robust. Combined with continued Fed rate cuts, these forces support a bullish bias. Temporary easing of tensions could trigger price pullbacks, but strong buying interest should limit downside. My forecast: annual high at USD $7,150/oz, reflecting potential risk spikes; annual average around USD $6,050/oz, supported by persistent structural demand; and annual low near USD $4,100/oz, slightly below early January levels, assuming brief corrections. Overall, I see gold trending higher throughout the year, with geopolitical uncertainty and monetary policy acting as primary drivers of sustained strength.
Top three drivers for gold:
• Central bank purchases
Global central banks continue increasing gold reserves to counter rising geopolitical risks. Although prices are high, these purchases are strategic and relatively insensitive to price fluctuations.
• Institutional allocation
Last year’s sharp gold rally highlighted its growth potential beyond safe-haven status. With U.S. equities facing possible downturns, institutions are likely to boost gold allocations in their portfolios.
• Physical demand amid social unrest
Social instability drives consumers to seek physical gold, especially in regions with severe currency depreciation and escalating conflicts such as Latin America. Similar trends are emerging globally as more consumers recognise gold’s investment value.
