Alexander Zumpfe

Gold’s milestone rally through 2025 has set the stage for a continuation of its bull trend in 2026, supported by a confluence of macroeconomic, monetary and geopolitical drivers. Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, persistently high fiscal deficits and the risk of fiscal dominance point toward a prolonged phase of low or negative real interest rates. Central bank gold purchases remain a key structural pillar as reserve diversification away from the U.S. dollar continues. Safe-haven demand is further underpinned by rising geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation and elevated financial market volatility. While periods of profit-taking and consolidation are likely after the strong price appreciation, investment demand remains robust, with ETF holdings still below historical peaks. Overall, gold is expected to retain a premium valuation regime through 2026, with upside risks dominating in stress scenarios. Key Factors for gold in 2026: 1. Central bank reserve diversification 2. Real interest rate development and US monetary policy 3. Geopolitical risk and fiscal sustainability concerns

Silver is expected to remain one of the most volatile precious metals in 2026, reflecting its dual role as an industrial metal and a monetary asset. Recent price action has highlighted the market’s sensitivity to liquidity conditions, ETF flows and geopolitical developments. Safe-haven demand, expectations of multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts and elevated global risk premiums have driven renewed investor interest, while physical dislocations caused by stock movements into the U.S. have periodically tightened availability. In addition, recent Chinese export-licensing decisions add a layer of uncertainty to physical flows, reinforcing the potential for episodic tightness and elevated volatility. At the same time, high prices are weighing on jewellery, silverware and selected industrial demand, while photovoltaic demand faces headwinds from thrifting. Recycling is expected to rise at elevated price levels. Despite these constraints, silver’s high beta to gold suggests prices could remain elevated, with sharp swings likely throughout the year, particularly during phases of macro-driven risk repricing.

Platinum’s outlook for 2026 remains supported by persistent structural tightness, despite expectations of some recovery in primary supply. Years of underinvestment, operational challenges in key producing regions and limited above-ground inventories continue to constrain availability, even as recycling volumes increase. While the market may move closer to balance compared with recent years, elevated lease rates underline ongoing physical tightness. Demand faces mixed dynamics. Automotive demand is pressured by rising BEV penetration, yet continued internal combustion engine production and substitution dynamics provide partial offset. Investment demand, particularly in Asia, remains an important pillar, while platinum’s large discount to gold could support jewellery demand. Overall, platinum is expected to trade at elevated levels in 2026, with intermittent consolidation phases rather than a sustained reversal.

Palladium fundamentals remain mixed heading into 2026. The market is expected to remain in surplus as primary supply recovers and secondary supply continues to rise, supported by higher recycling activity. Automotive demand, the dominant end-use, continues to face structural pressure from accelerating BEV adoption, although stricter emission standards and reverse substitution into gasoline autocatalysts provide partial support. At the same time, palladium prices remain sensitive to physical availability, inventory movements and relative value dynamics within the PGM complex. Periods of strength in platinum could spill over into palladium, supporting prices episodically. Overall, palladium is expected to trade within a broad and volatile range during 2026, with upside driven by substitution and supply risks and downside shaped by longer-term demand erosion.