Bernard Dahdah

Our outlook is that 2026 will be a year of price consolidation rather than an extension of 2025. The dedollarisation and geopolitical theme will remain important, but we think that three factors will put a break on the price rally. Firstly, high prices are leading to demand destruction within the jewelry sector. Secondly the U.S. rate cut cycle, which was a major driver in the second half of last year, is expected to come to an end before the first half of the year. Finally, we expect to see tariff uncertainty (another major force behind last year’s rally) peaking as the U.S. supreme court gives its decision early in January.

The direction in silver prices will remain being driven by gold. With the beta between the two metals rising to 1.3 we could see larger than usual swings in the price of silver. Industrial demand is set to remain a strong driver behind the price of silver. With that in mind, as China reached last year its 2030 solar panel capacity target, we see demand for silver from that sector slowing down (Chinese solar panel demand accounts for almost 10% of global demand for silver). Moreover, at the start of 2026, we expect to see further clarity on potential US tariffs that silver might be subjected to, which could eliminate the uncertainty and push the price of the metal down.

The metal is set to continue to benefit from higher jewelry demand thanks to demand destruction within the gold jewelry sector. Platinum demand from the former sector rose by 30% in 2025 owing to substitution driven by high gold prices.