Caroline Bain

Despite the surge in the gold price in early January 2026, it could rise further in the first half of the year on the back of a combination of expectations of US interest rate cuts, heightened global geopolitical uncertainty, persistent central bank buying and subdued global economic growth. However, prices will start to move lower in the second half of the year as the market assumes that the monetary easing cycle in the U.S. has run its course. The collapse in jewellery demand in 2025 will persist in 2026, and there may be more recourse to gold scrap sales later in the year if it appears likely that the gold price has peaked. That said, the price of gold will remain elevated by historical standards throughout 2026. The three most important factors that will influence the price are: 1. US interest rates 2. Geopolitical tensions 3. Central bank buying.

The price of gold is expected to fall in the second half of 2026, and the silver price is likely to fall by more in percentage terms. The smaller, less liquid, silver market typically overshoots on both the upside and downside. That said, the price will hold up better than if the market were solely driven by its high-beta relationship with gold. There is strong industrial demand for silver in key growth sectors including electronics, renewable energy, automotives and data centres, which will offer underlying support to prices. China has also started restricting exports and the market is in a structural deficit. Physical stocks are low.

Commentary The price of platinum received a boost in 2025 from the incoming Trump administration’s end to tax credits in the U.S. for electric vehicles (EVs), as well as the more market-related rise in the prices of all precious metals. Our forecast of a fall in gold prices will weigh on platinum but, like silver, the physical market remains constrained, which will act as a floor under prices.

Like platinum, the underlying demand story for palladium has received a boost from the Trump administration’s end to tax credits for EVs. However, the EV rollout continues apace in China and in Europe. Palladium prices look likely to fall in 2026 as part of a general decline in precious metals prices. That said, the supply-demand fundamentals are generally supportive of prices, and this would particularly be the case if Western countries pursue a policy of sanctions on Russian palladium, which they have hitherto avoided. That said, secondary supply is increasing and if a resolution is found to the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2026, freeing up Russian supply to the global market, then the downside to prices is considerable.