Chantelle Schieven

Gold is likely to remain well supported by persistent macroeconomic uncertainty, strong investment demand, and a continuing structural reassessment of its role in the global financial system. Central banks are steadily increasing gold holdings relative to foreign-exchange reserves as part of a deliberate shift away from reliance on the U.S. dollar and other government currencies, reflecting rising concerns over fiscal sustainability, sanctions risk, and the politicisation of financial flows. This pattern suggests the current bull market is not simply cyclical, but part of a broader re-monetisation of gold as a neutral reserve asset amid geopolitical realignment and mounting fiscal pressures. Uncertainty surrounding US trade and fiscal policy, combined with ongoing governance dysfunction, has further weakened confidence in the U.S. dollar’s status as a risk-free asset, reinforcing gold’s appeal as a store of value. At the same time, cyclical forces are providing near-term support: the Federal Reserve’s shift toward easier monetary policy, despite inflation remaining above target, is likely to keep real yields suppressed and liquidity conditions supportive. Together, these forces support gold’s ongoing strength as investors hedge against rising economic, political, and institutional uncertainty. Three most important factors for gold: 1. Structural central bank demand and reserve diversification. 2. Rising fiscal, political, and institutional uncertainty. 3. Lower real yields and supportive liquidity conditions.

Silver enters 2026 with strong momentum, benefiting from the structural and cyclical forces that continue to underpin gold. After breaking out to record levels in the second half of 2025, silver enters the year from a much higher base, underpinned by strong investment demand, tight physical markets, and its expanding role in electrification and renewable energy. These demand trends are occurring against a backdrop of persistent supply deficits and limited mine-supply responsiveness, increasing silver’s sensitivity to incremental shifts in both investor and industrial demand. As a result, silver prices are likely to trend higher in 2026, with a wide trading range reflecting the metal’s greater exposure to liquidity conditions, investor sentiment, and macroeconomic shifts.