Christopher Louney

We highlight that our mid-to-high scenario range will likely be where gold spends most of its time in the coming year, trending closer to our high scenario in H2. There are three key themes that define our view: 1) Uncertainty – the most difficult to quantify factor for gold – remains just as, if not more, important than the macroeconomic outcome for gold; 2) While 2026 is unlikely to repeat 2025’s performance in our view, the path of least resistance remains to the upside for now (and we favour our high scenario most in H2 2026); 3) Official sector/central bank demand and investor flows look sticky, as 2025’s flows were more strategic than tactical (important given that they are two line items in our balance with the most potential for change). Overall, against the backdrop of uncertainty, gold has proven itself over the course of 2025, and, absent a melting away of uncertainty, we think that the strategic underpinnings of gold point to the path of least resistance being flat to higher, and that prices in the $4,500- 5,000/oz range or slightly higher are entirely reasonable this year. The three most important factors that will impact on the gold price in 2026: 1. Uncertainty/geopolitics. 2. Official sector purchases. 3. Stickiness of increased investor allocations.