Debajit Saha

Gold’s rally is poised to continue in 2026 as the core drivers remain firmly intact. The prolonged U.S. tariff saga, rising geopolitical tensions with new conflicts emerging across the globe, a weakening U.S. labour market, and persistently high inflation are all reinforcing gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Major economies have shifted toward protectionism, fuelling trade frictions, while control over oil flows and dominance in rare earth metals remain central themes. Meanwhile, central banks are expected to maintain their gold purchase programmes to mitigate foreign reserve risks. De-dollarisation is no longer theoretical—it is evident on the ground as major central banks are reducing U.S. dollar exposure and increasing allocations to gold and other sovereign assets.

The silver-to-gold ratio currently stands at 58:1 [at the time of writing], underscoring silver’s relative strength. While historically the ratio has been much lower, this level ranks among the lowest in modern times. Silver’s high beta attracted significant investor interest in 2025, driven by supply concerns. The rise of green technologies and growing demand linked to Artificial Intelligence (AI) further amplified speculation about potential shortages. Adding to these concerns, China introduced a regulatory framework requiring government approval for silver exports – similar to past restrictions on rare earth metals – aimed at building domestic stockpiles. Meanwhile, the U.S. has classified silver as a critical mineral, signalling its strategic importance and paving the way for potential federal support for domestic mining and processing to secure supply chains. Investment demand is expected to remain strong, continuing the trend from 2025, though we anticipate some price moderation towards the end of the year.

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) surprised markets in 2025, outperforming gold by a wide margin. Early momentum was driven by supply concern, and heightened exchange-for-physical (EFP) activity following President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. In the latter half of the year, renewed demand for platinum jewellery in China, the launch of a new Chinese exchange, and expectations of softer emissions policies in Europe further supported prices. PGMs also benefited from anticipated U.S. demand growth after the termination of the $7,500 electric vehicle purchase incentive. Additionally, broader macro tailwinds – including U.S. dollar weakness, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical uncertainty that boosted gold and silver – added to PGM strength. We expect this positive trend to persist into 2026.

Palladium prices are expected to remain flat in 2025, as ICE vehicles are predicted to lose market share to electric vehicles (EVs). Adding to the challenges of an already subdued price is the increase in supply from secondary sources. A significant volume of cars produced since 2013 will begin to reach the end of their life cycle in 2025, as stringent pollution regulations have resulted in higher platinum group metal (PGM) loadings, which can now be recovered and supplied back to the market.