Emmanuel Munjeri

Silver’s ability to ride gold’s coattail is likely to hold steady, as its quasi-metals status continues to be a key support factor. Though policy headwinds in mainland China and the U.S. are likely to temper photovoltaic demand in 2026, overall industrial silver demand should continue to expand, albeit it at a slower pace, helping it outpace a flat to marginal uplift in supply, and keeping the market in deficit. Additionally, silver may continue to benefit from its precious metal’s status, alongside gold, as continued strong central bank purchases, persistent geopolitical tensions and the Fed independence threat prove supportive. This should see the gold/silver ratio hold around its historic average of 60 through the year.

Another year of deficits in the platinum market can prove supportive of higher prices. Battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption rates are stalling, while the uptake in hybrids gains traction, giving a platform for longer-than-expected sustained autocatalyst demand for the metal. Geopolitical uncertainty and a persistent industrial deficit support a slower platinum drawdown in CME-linked warehouse inventories and a moderation in ETF profit-taking. Investors' accumulation of platinum during price dips provides a downside cushion, but their willingness to hold onto the metal when it appreciates is more important to the outlook. Limited mined supply growth could do little to offset resilient demand, with any boost from the release of in-process inventory being vulnerable to structural operational challenges.

The slowdown in battery electric vehicle (BEV) as the uptake in hybrids gains traction offers some near-term support to a grim medium-term outlook for palladium. Yet, this may not be enough to keep palladium demand from sliding by low-single digits, compounding the effect of substitution and thrifting in several end markets. Despite this, gold’s ‘pull effect’ on the entire precious metals complex could keep the metal elevated for longer. While muted supply growth this year may be enough to keep the market in a small deficit, mounting recycling supply through the decade presents an added downside risk to overall investor sentiment. As such, palladium may likely underperform its sister metal platinum, with short-term spot price rallies susceptible to higher volatility.