Grant Sporre

Gold’s rapid rebound above $4,500 an ounce after the late-2025 sell-off suggests investor demand persists, with dips seen as a buying opportunity. This backdrop supports a gradual grind higher through 2026, putting a plus-$5,000 an ounce price level in sight toward the end of the year. Persistent geopolitical and US policy risks – including tensions involving Venezuela, Iran and a rising risk of an incident in the South China Sea, and Fed independence threats – should remain supportive. After a strong equity rally, a pause or modest extension in the S&P 500 is broadly neutral for gold, yet allocations may continue to rise as investors seek portfolio hedges. Central bank buying remains robust, led by emerging markets seeking to diversify foreign reserves. A pause in rate cuts, softer inflation and a firm dollar could temper upside in H1 2026, though we see these headwinds as temporary, with gold becoming less sensitive to these signals over the past few years. Although bullion’s valuation appears stretched on our models and implies elevated risk pricing, this has yet to hinder performance. The three main drivers for gold: 1) Elevated geopolitical tension 2) Central bank gold buying 3) Asset allocation / rotation into commodities