Jacob Smith

Amid ongoing global uncertainty – including the rollout and shifting of tariffs, conflicts in Ukraine, Venezuela and the Middle East, concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence, the U.S. mid-terms and pressure on the U.S. dollar from rising government debt and potential currency debasement – gold is expected to climb steadily through 2026. Price dips offer clear buying opportunities, supported by continued central bank purchases, giving investors greater confidence to open or expand positions. After an exceptional 65% rally last year, the strongest annual performance since 1979, we expect growth to moderate. Still, the combination of geopolitical risk, central bank support and a rate cutting cycle should keep gold on an upward trajectory. Three most important factors for gold: 1) Global conflict. 2) Debasement trade. 3) Federal Reserve independence.

Silver is trading at its strongest level relative to gold in over a decade. Much of this premium and exceptional volatility reflects uncertainty around Section 232 tariffs and the U.S. critical minerals list, which has prompted significant stockpiling and tightened market conditions. Once clarity emerges, high COMEX inventories are likely to weigh on the market, triggering a sharp but healthy correction. Gold’s strength, underpinned by broader macro uncertainty and dollar debasement, should provide a floor for silver. While silver may retrace, it is expected to remain well above last year’s average, supported by gold, defensive stockpiling and industrial demand, led by solar deployment and AI-driven electronics demand.

Platinum broke out of its long-term trading range last year, more than doubling in price to reach record nominal highs. The market has now entered a new phase, where price behaviour is less predictable. We expect volatility to remain elevated in the first quarter, driven by two key factors: the launch of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) in late November, which has helped accelerate the rally, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Section 232 investigation in the U.S. Once the outcome of the Section 232 probe becomes clear, unusually high stock levels in CME-approved warehouses, built up ahead of potential tariffs, are likely to put significant downward pressure on prices, resulting in a healthy correction. This should ease some of the tightness in the platinum market. However, stocks in London and Zurich have been drawn down as new trade barriers disrupt previously frictionless global metal flows and increase the need to hold inventory locally and defensively. This underlying tightness should support prices and allow platinum to resume a gradual upward trend, underpinned by strong gold prices, defensive stockbuilding, and a structural supply deficit, albeit from a starting position more closely aligned with fundamentals.

Palladium remains in a delicate balance. Prices are being supported by new trade barriers – which force stocks to be held locally and defensively – rising precious metals prices, and ongoing uncertainty around the Section 232 and Russian anti-dumping investigations in the U.S. However, longer term, the fundamentals point to a surplus, which is likely to weigh on prices. Recent downward revisions to electrification forecasts have offered some near-term support, but rising autocatalyst scrap and weak automotive demand will push the market back into surplus. After a short-term spike in volatility linked to the anticipated Q1 outcomes of the Section 232 and Russian anti-dumping probes, the longer-term fundamentals will reassert themselves and pressure palladium prices.