Julia Du

I expect 2026 to be a year of heightened geopolitical risk and strong safe-haven demand, allowing gold to continue the volatile yet upward trend. Central banks are likely to keep adding to reserves, institutional investors will increase portfolio allocations, and retail demand – especially in Latin America – should remain robust. Combined with continued Fed rate cuts, these forces support a bullish bias. Temporary easing of tensions could trigger price pullbacks, but strong buying interest should limit downside. My forecast: annual high at USD $7,150/oz, reflecting potential risk spikes; annual average around USD $6,050/oz, supported by persistent structural demand; and annual low near USD $4,100/oz, slightly below early January levels, assuming brief corrections. Overall, I see gold trending higher throughout the year, with geopolitical uncertainty and monetary policy acting as primary drivers of sustained strength.

Top three drivers for gold:

• Central bank purchases

Global central banks continue increasing gold reserves to counter rising geopolitical risks. Although prices are high, these purchases are strategic and relatively insensitive to price fluctuations.

• Institutional allocation

Last year’s sharp gold rally highlighted its growth potential beyond safe-haven status. With U.S. equities facing possible downturns, institutions are likely to boost gold allocations in their portfolios.

• Physical demand amid social unrest

Social instability drives consumers to seek physical gold, especially in regions with severe currency depreciation and escalating conflicts such as Latin America. Similar trends are emerging globally as more consumers recognise gold’s investment value.

I expect silver to deliver a bullish performance in 2026, supported by the same macro drivers as gold: persistent geopolitical tensions, strong safe-haven demand, and continued Fed rate cuts. Silver’s smaller market size and lower entry cost make it more volatile, attracting investors seeking alternatives to expensive gold. Structural supply deficits – driven by robust photovoltaic and industrial demand – combined with rising jewellery and investment purchases, will amplify price swings. Regional dislocations from potential U.S. tariffs could further tighten supply and fuel speculative spikes. My forecast: annual high at USD $150/oz, reflecting aggressive upside under risk-driven rallies; annual average around USD $125/oz, balancing strong bullish momentum with intermittent corrections; and annual low near USD $62/oz, assuming temporary pullbacks amid profit-taking. Overall, silver is poised to trend higher with sharp fluctuations, increasingly viewed as an investment instrument rather than a simple alternative to gold.

Platinum is expected to maintain a bullish tone in 2026, supported by persistent supply constraints and macro tailwinds such as Fed rate cuts and geopolitical risk. While automotive demand faces structural headwinds from the EV transition, jewellery and investment demand provide a partial offset, and tariff-related supply concerns could amplify price volatility. However, after last year’s 123% surge – driven largely by speculative flows – the market is likely to cool, with gains more moderate. My forecast: annual high at USD $3,100/oz, reflecting upside potential under risk-driven rallies; annual average around USD $2,752/oz, as strong fundamentals balance reduced speculative intensity; and annual low near USD $1,900/oz, assuming temporary corrections amid profit-taking. Overall, platinum should trend higher but with less momentum than 2025, as investors weigh structural deficits against slower jewellery substitution and a more cautious sentiment.

Palladium enters 2026 with a mixed outlook: macro factors such as Fed easing, geopolitical uncertainty, and U.S. tariff threats provide price support, but structural fundamentals remain weaker than platinum. Demand is still concentrated in combustion vehicles, which face long-term decline, while global supply remains adequate. Nevertheless, palladium cannot lag too far behind platinum without triggering substitution demand, which would tighten the market and lift prices. Regional supply disruptions from tariffs could also add upside pressure. After last year’s 77% rally, speculative appetite is expected to ease, limiting momentum. My forecast: annual high at USD $2,400/oz, reflecting moderate gains; annual average around USD $2,087/oz, supported by investment flows, substitution dynamics, and tariff-driven supply tightness; and annual low near USD $1,600/oz, assuming temporary pullbacks. Overall, palladium is expected to trend higher with volatility, though ample supply and softer demand will keep gains below platinum’s performance.