Kieran Tompkins

Gold, and precious metals in general, are difficult to reach a judgement on, which can be seen by the stunning spread in forecasts in some forecast surveys. To some extent there has been a perfect storm of factors to push prices higher such as ongoing the structural shift higher in central bank buying, demand for gold as a safe-haven to almost-persistent geopolitical risk and a hedge against attacks on central bank independence. However, there are signs that speculative activity has jumped on the bandwagon and fuelled some of the price rises. On balance, my judgement is that gold's rally has a bit more juice left in it, given it is the hedge of choice. My three key factors for gold in 2026: 1. central bank buying 2. safe haven/hedging demand 3. speculative activity/FOMO

Some of the broader factors supporting gold are also relevant for silver, and it also remains to be seen whether refined supply from China is restricted due to the export controls imposed by policymakers. However, it is undeniable that the rally has been extremely explosive and risks turning into a blow-off top if sentiment turns, especially as the gold -silver ratio has fallen so sharply.

While there are some factors, such as the rollback of the EU's ICE ban, that support higher prices, I doubt they are a strong enough case to underpin recent rapid price increases. Instead, they appear more like spillovers from some exuberance in gold/silver finding other corners. It's impossible to know just how far that could run, however the rapid nature of price increases the chances of a blow-off top.

Similar to my view on platinum, the recent rapid rally in prices more reflects spillovers from elements of euphoria in other precious metals prices, rather than shifts in fundamentals. The rollback of the EU's ICE ban will support demand and slow the transition to EVs, but won't force a complete halt in that transition.