Kirill Kirilenko

Gold is expected to carry positive momentum into 2026, supported by a persistent mix of macro, monetary and geopolitical risks. Slowing global growth, widening fiscal imbalances, and rising sovereign debt levels will keep institutional investors on the defensive, reinforcing gold’s role as a strategic hedge. Central banks will remain a key pillar of demand, with sustained buying driven by de-dollarisation, geopolitical risk management, and a desire to diversify away from G7-linked reserve assets. Emerging market institutions, in particular, are expected to continue increasing their gold allocations in response to rising currency volatility and sanctions exposure. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s extended easing cycle will keep real yields suppressed, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. While the overall backdrop will remain supportive, the nature of the rally is likely to shift from the reactive, shock-driven moves of 2025 to a more policy-sensitive, positioning-led environment in 2026. As a result, gold’s performance will increasingly depend on real rates, investor flows, inflation expectations, the U.S. dollar, and the persistence of geopolitical stress.

Supportive macroeconomic conditions and still-tight fundamentals will continue to draw investor interest, helping to keep prices elevated, but structural tailwinds begin to shift. Structural deficits and safe-haven flows will remain important drivers, but rising substitution pressures and softening industrial demand will begin to challenge the rally. The higher silver climbs, the more cost-sensitive users are likely to pull back, making further upside increasingly reliant on sustained investor conviction. On the supply side, silver’s heavy dependence on by-product production means that mine output is closely tied to the outlook for copper, lead and zinc mining. As those base metals approach a peak in output, silver supply growth may begin to reverse. With demand levelling off and supply nearing its limits, the silver market is poised to transition toward contraction. This shift will likely introduce more volatility, as both industrial consumers and financial investors reassess their exposure. As long as supply tightens faster than demand weakens, and investor appetite holds up, silver’s rally could still extend, but the path forward is likely to be bumpier.

Platinum’s explosive rally in 2025, driven by supply disruptions, speculative inflows, and restocking across industrial and jewellery segments, is unlikely to extend into 2026. The market is shifting from deficit toward balance as mine supply begins to recover. Output is expected to rise, supported by improved power stability in South Africa, stockpile drawdowns, and additional production from Zimbabwe and Russia. On the demand side, rising BEV adoption will continue to erode autocatalyst use, while palladium’s renewed price advantage weakens the substitution case, raising the risk of reverse substitution. Jewellery and industrial demand will remain broadly stable but lack the growth needed to absorb additional metal. Unless hydrogen adoption scales up faster than anticipated, investor interest may soften as the scarcity narrative fades. With speculative inflows slowing and physical availability rising, platinum’s upside in 2026 will likely be capped without a meaningful demand-side surprise.

Palladium may receive modest support in 2026 from reverse substitution, as its renewed price advantage over platinum prompts some automakers to revert to palladium-rich catalyst loadings. This, alongside sporadic speculative inflows, could lift prices slightly in the near term. However, the rally will remain on fragile ground. Palladium’s dominant role in ICE autocatalysts continues to weaken as BEV adoption steadily expands, and no major new industrial applications have emerged to offset the loss. On the supply side, output is expected to rise, with stabilising production in Russia and increasing by-product volumes from South Africa, while North America is expected to post only modest growth. With supply continuing to rise and demand growth remaining tepid, the market is expected to shift into structural surplus in 2026. As the scarcity narrative fades, investor interest is likely to remain cautious, leaving prices vulnerable beyond the near-term uplift.