Nicky Shiels

Structural and tactical gold drivers: • Secular upside dominated by GeoMacro regime change a late-ish gold cycle but early debasement cycle • Becoming a strategic allocation with reduced sensitivity to real yields/dollar. • Central bank buying/diversification continues but at a slower pace • Investors underinvested on historical oz-basis and relative to equities/bonds; 60/40 portfolios poised to rotate into real assets as inflation fears reemerge • Fiscal dominance fears, Fed rate cuts and Fed independence concerns to further weaken USD$ • Ongoing tariff uncertainty (now global, not just US-driven) and a world tilting toward messy multipolarity increases geopolitical instability • Sentiment and analyst forecasts have been persistently too timid for three straight years. • Gold likely consolidates near term before establishing a milder, more sustainable bullish trajectory post-2025’s parabolic surge. One-way pricing in 2025 becomes 2-way pricing with wider ranges Risks to forecasts: • Overcrowding: Consensus is universally bullish gold and bearish USD. • Demand fragility: Central Bank and jewelry buying could slow meaningfully above $4,000/oz, tempering upside. Three key drivers: 1. Fed rate cuts 2. US$ trajectory 3. Pace of central bank purchases

Structural and tactical silver drivers: • Persistent deficits since 2021 & structurally rising industrial use due to broad-based electrification, despite softening of PV demand in 2026. • Silver is ‘high-beta Gold’, highly USD-sensitive and nowhere near its inflation-adjusted highs (~$200/oz), leaving ample runway as investment demand (retail + ETF) reawakens. • Technically, double tops are extremely rare/short-lived; ~$50/oz Silver is analogous to ~$2,000/oz Gold and Q4’25 outperformance vs gold signals the next leg of the hard-asset secular bull market. • Fragmented global inventories (tariffs and tight liquidity) heighten risks of sharp, disorderly spikes, especially once strategic investment flows reengage. • Structural mining underinvestment, PV-sector recycling challenges, and silver’s by-product nature all constrain upside elasticity when prices run. • Silver likely consolidates lower near term before establishing a milder, more sustainable bullish trajectory post-2025’s parabolic surge. Risks to forecasts: • Gold stalls: A secular top in gold derails silver’s leverage. • Macro hit to industrial demand: a recession in China, the U.S., or Europe could trigger industrial demand contraction, overwhelming investment inflows.

Structural and tactical platinum drivers: • Multi-year deficits to remain with physical tightness exacerbated by regional stockpiling, tariff-driven flow distortions, autocat demand and a new restocking cycle and investor accumulation. • Autocat demand growth is soft but supported by growing hybrid share. Industrial demand is modestly better with stable growth and a weaker USD. Jewelry demand improves with a high gold price. • Investors continue rotating into platinum as “industrial gold.” New exchange products (GFEX) accelerates and expands investor demand. • Supply remains structurally constrained: a decade of underinvestment keeps long-term output capped, though SA volumes may stabilise on better Rand basket economics. Recycling improves but doesn’t meaningfully alter the deficit narrative. • Consensus leans bullish: persistent structural deficits mean prices should grind higher, with upside asymmetry if investment demand strengthens or policy risks (Section 232, U.S. anti-dumping actions) bite—both mildly supportive for Pt. Risks to forecasts: • Macro hit to auto sector: Auto production weakness from recession, especially in Europe and China. • Destocking across auto supply chain + strong recycling. • Weak jewelry follow-through from consumer despite high gold prices.

Structural and tactical palladium drivers: • Some consensus on a near-term deficit narrative despite longer-dated surplus risks from BEV penetration. • Short-term fundamentals remain supported by hybrid vehicle share, higher Pd + Rh loadings, and some reverse substitution from Pt—offsetting faster EV adoption for now. Industrial demand holds up. • Physical tightness will be exacerbated by regional stockpiling, tariff-driven trade rewiring, renewed autocat restocking and any significant ETF accumulation. • Lack of investment channels for Palladium ensures little price discovery and growing “price spike” risk. • Structural underinvestment keeps mine supply constrained, though SA volumes may stabilize in 2026 on higher basket pricing. Recycling improves but doesn’t erase the s/t tightness, on higher commodity prices. • Prices should grind higher in sympathy with Precious Metals but are especially sensitive to new policy catalysts—Section 232 and the U.S. anti-dumping action—both of which skew the upside and are materially bullish palladium. Risks to forecasts: • EV/BEV adoption overshoots expectations; ICE/hybrid share shrinks faster. • Macro hit to auto sector: Auto production weakness from recession, especially in Europe and China • Destocking across auto supply chain + strong recycling.