René Hochreiter

Geopolitical events in 2026 are likely to continue unabated, putting upward pressure on the price. World governments are building up their gold reserves in anticipation of de-dollarisation. The race to restock metals on the U.S. Critical Minerals List (gold is not on the list) will see the upward momentum of many metals and minerals on that list rubbing off on gold as well. The U.S. Dollar may weaken further – it is what President Trump wants, pushing up the gold price. Powell will “go” early 2026 and rates will likely see an era of declination when the new Reserve Board comes in, which will likely support stronger gold prices. On balance, therefore, prices should firm again in 2026 maybe even more than in 2025, the direction being almost certainly upwards. Three most important factors affecting the gold price in 2024: • Geopolitics • Strength of the USD • Stock building of gold by most central governments in the World, especially the BRICS countries

SILVER IS ON AMERICA’S CRITICAL MINERALS LIST. (Source: American's Critical Minerals in 2025 - potential GDP loss from foreign trade disruptions, Visual Capitalist) Five years of deficits in the silver market will see a deficit of nearly 200 million ounces in 2026 on our calculations. Though not an all-time high, it is nevertheless a number which could see the silver price reach unprecedented levels. Further support will come from China’s effective ban on silver exports from January 1st this year. Demand for solar panels is inexorable and China makes 80% of the World’s solar panels. It will ensure that it has enough silver to maintain its position. It also knows the U.S. wants silver desperately as it is in the fourth most-wanted row of most wanted metals on the U.S. Critical Minerals List. US buying will likely see strong prices. The $100/oz level is firmly in sight.

PLATINUM IS ON AMERICA’S CRITICAL MINERALS LIST: South Africa has 90% of global reserves and produces 75% of the World’s supply. It is in the second row of most wanted minerals on the American Critical Minerals List. The U.S. will likely stockpile as much as it can this year as the stocking war develops. Furthermore, there are deficits now forecast for the next 20 years as the diversity of demand for the catalytic properties of the metal surpasses every other metal on Earth. Prices rose more than gold in 2025 because the market perceived a shortage of the metal due to low capex spend for three years as prices crashed in 2023.

PALLADIUM IS ON AMERICA’S CRITICAL MINERALS LIST: South Africa and Russia have 80% of global palladium reserves. It is in the third row of most-wanted American Critical Minerals. The U.S. will stockpile as much as it can this year as the stocking war develops. Battery Electric Vehicle sales are in decline everywhere except China. In China and the West, pure BEVs are giving way to hybrid gasoline/battery vehicles which need large amounts of PGMs to comply with Euro 7/China 7. In Europe, the banning of internal combustion powered cars has been delayed for the third time in five years, the most recent delay is now beyond 2035 and will probably never happen at all.