Robin Bhar

A perfect storm of factors is providing a strong tailwind to gold prices. Economic and heightened political uncertainty, including concerns about Fed independence, will ensure gold remains a vital asset to provide a hedge. Geopolitical risks continue to bubble in various hot spots, adding to inflationary risks and continued safe-haven demand for gold. Central bank buying should continue to be an important support factor, as will continued portfolio diversification and speculative money on the long side. Huge government deficits and huge increases in public and private debt should support the gold price on continued debasement fears and fiscal strain. The three most important factors that will impact on the gold price in 2026: 1. US monetary policy 2. Central banks 3. Geopolitics

Many of the bullish drivers for gold also apply to silver, while global growth/industrial activity is likely to boost demand across key technology sectors such as solar (PV), EVs and related infrastructure, as well as data centres and AI. The strength of global silver industrial demand is expected to maintain the market in a deficit and drawing down tight silver inventories further. Robust investment demand for silver as a hard asset will be in demand in a world marked by fragmentation and fiscal strain. Its inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list, prompting tariff risks tightening supply outside the U.S., is a supportive factor.

Demand for hard assets, underpinned by a tight supply outlook, has been a defining investment theme in 2025 and is likely to continue in 2026. A platinum market in deficit and a fall in above ground stocks will underpin a rise in platinum prices. Speculative interest is likely to be rekindled on rebounding auto-catalyst demand over the course of the year, with interest switching out of the other precious metals into platinum, on perceived platinum outperformance.

Demand for palladium in the automotive industry - the largest customer at more than 80% - is expected to remain subdued despite some rollback in EV mandates. Overall, supply remains in a shortfall, keeping the metal in deficit in 2025, but it is less tight than platinum. However, the rate of substitution and continued thrifting of palladium is likely to hamper demand.