Ross Norman

Aggressive actions proposed by the U.S. on several countries will increase global friction, disrupt trade and energy supplies, and spark pushback from powers like China, the EU, and BRICS groups. It is likely to drive safe-haven demand for gold. Central bank buying from China, India, Russia, and a few others briefly stopped in the last two quarters of 2025. We expect the buying to resume later this year, giving strong price support to fight currency risks and limits. De-dollarisation keeps growing through new payment systems and gold-based trade, cutting U.S. dollar power and lifting demand when the dollar weakens from U.S. debt and easy global money policies.

Key factors: supply deficit, increased demand, geopolitical tensions. Major users of silver for industrial applications such as the U.S. and China have listed silver as a critical mineral. This is likely to affect global supply chain in the short to medium term. High and volatile prices are not conducive for growing industrial demand. To some extent, high silver prices might increase scrap-flows into the market and might bridge the deficit. Higher gold prices as well as record high copper prices likely to provide support for high silver prices.

There is a growing sense that we have entered a new geo-political paradigm, as the West and East vie for economic hegemony—a contest likely to manifest through commodity prices and securing supply channels. With economic policy uncertainty persisting and amplified by supply vulnerabilities, hoarding is expected to continue, supporting robust prices. Consequently, platinum is transitioning from a niche precious metal to a strategic asset in a resource war, prompting a corresponding repricing. Platinum’s narrow supply constraints—coupled with its broad industrial applications—place it under special focus. Positive factors include Europe’s rollback of internal combustion engine (ICE) phase-outs, the elimination of U.S. tax credits for electric vehicles, and tightening emissions standards, all driving higher automotive loadings. Domestic Chinese speculation and retail interest should also rise following the launch of platinum contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX). While the heady 160% gains of 2025 are unlikely to repeat, fresh record highs remain probable, though with moderating increases as the market shifts from deficit toward balance.

Palladium is exhibiting whipsaw price action near three-year highs, likely reflecting volatility in demand expectations, amplified by supply vulnerabilities. The European Commission’s recent proposal to soften its 2035 internal combustion engine (ICE) ban—allowing vehicles achieving at least 90% emission reductions (primarily gasoline and hybrid models) to be sold beyond 2035—provides significant support for palladium prices. This adjustment directly bolsters sustained demand for palladium, a key metal in catalytic converters for gasoline and hybrid vehicles. By extending the operational life and market relevance of internal combustion and hybrid technologies—coupled with expectations of higher metal loadings—this policy shift is poised to underpin palladium demand well into the 2030s.