Wilma Swarts

Platinum is expected to remain in deficit for a fourth consecutive year. Autocatalyst demand growth is forecast to remain subdued in absolute terms, although rising hybrid vehicle penetration should slow the decline. Industrial demand is forecast to grow modestly. Jewellery demand, by contrast, is expected to decline following limited consumer follow-through after the 2025 fabrication surge seen in China. Crucially, supply remains structurally constrained after a decade of underinvestment, with higher recycling volumes insufficient to provide a material offset. Investor activity is expected to be the largest driver of prices this year. New exchange-based products, particularly on the GFEX, are broadening market access and accelerating participation. Investors are taking note of platinum’s healthy supply-demand conditions and the wider precious metals prices rally is also helping. Market tightness, partly reflecting past deficits, stocks locked up in ETPs or held outside London, in both cases not available to the leasing market, should amplify price gains and we forecast a peak of $2,900.

Platinum is expected to remain in deficit for a fourth consecutive year. Autocatalyst demand growth is forecast to remain subdued in absolute terms, although rising hybrid vehicle penetration should slow the decline. Industrial demand is forecast to grow modestly. Jewellery demand, by contrast, is expected to decline following limited consumer follow-through after the 2025 fabrication surge seen in China. Crucially, supply remains structurally constrained after a decade of underinvestment, with higher recycling volumes insufficient to provide a material offset. Investor activity is expected to be the largest driver of prices this year. New exchange-based products, particularly on the GFEX, are broadening market access and accelerating participation. Investors are taking note of platinum’s healthy supply-demand conditions and the wider precious metals prices rally is also helping. Market tightness, partly reflecting past deficits, stocks locked up in ETPs or held outside London, in both cases not available to the leasing market, should amplify price gains and we forecast a peak of $2,900.

Palladium prices are expected to remain firm in early 2026, with scope to retest the $2,000 level as a wider precious metals rally, near-term physical tightness and policy-related uncertainty continue to drive sentiment. However, as Section 232 and U.S. anti-dumping concerns move towards resolution, we expect prices will ease in H2 and palladium could trade to a low of $1,090 before year-end. Such projected price declines may seem at odds with our view that we will see another deficit for palladium this year. Automotive demand declines will be limited by a resilient production of hybrids and emerging substitution from platinum, as palladium’s price discount widens. Industrial demand should also remain stable. Recycling volumes should recover strongly on higher prices, but structural underinvestment will keep mine supply constrained, even as South African output stabilises. Nevertheless, the consensus for palladium’s longer-term demand outlook remains bearish. Just as importantly, investors will likely focus on the far superior fundamentals or safe-haven attributes of other precious metals. Once some of the recent supportive factors dissipate, we believe this will result in notable corrections.