April 01, 2021

LBMA 2021 Price Forecast Review

Frederic Panizzutti, MKS; Rhona O’Connell, StoneX Financial Ltd.; Dr Thorsten Polleit, Degussa; René Hochreiter, Sieberana Research.

In this LBMA webinar, Frederic Panizzutti, Rhona O’Connell, Dr Thorsten Polleit, and René Hochreiter discussed the key factors underpinning their LBMA Price Forecasts, analysed what prompted prices to drop, and whether they would change their forecasts based on what they know now.

When asked whether gold will reach their respective predicted peaks and averages, Thorsten – who was bullish, with a predicted peak of $2,680 and an average of $2,300 – said that he was “optimistic that the price correction will end soon and the price of gold will return to its long-term price trajectory, given the underlying trend is determined by the expansion of the world’s money supply.”

René was among the most bearish analysts in the LBMA forecast with a average prediction of $1,650 and a low of $1,590 based on a stronger dollar, rising equities and a fast recovery in China and the United States. “Every factor I looked at is pointing to a weaker gold price, which I think is still relevant,” said René. “Possibly not $1,650 though – I would go to $1,700 for the year if asked now. I think it’s going to correct quite significantly this year, and it’s not over yet.”

Rhona was on the bull side in the price forecast – with a predicted average of $2,084 given geopolitical risk, an increase in economic stimulus, and negative real interest rates. When asked whether she stands by this forecast, Rhona said: “No. I remain in the bull camp, though. I can understand why prices have reacted how they have since January. There is a lot of money in the global market – and especially given the U.S. stimulus announcement yesterday – but if we look to the longer term there’s a lot of money looking for a home. There are fund managers who are looking at gold as a risk hedge. The proliferation of negative interest rates is not going to go away.”

Listen to the full webinar, where the panel continues to discuss their gold forecasts, as well as Bitcoin, palladium supply issues, rhodium, and silver price forecasts.