February 24, 2022

Lifting the Lid on LBMA's 2022 Precious Metals Forecast Survey

Nicky Shiels, Head of Metals Strategy, MKS PAMP; Bernard Dahdah, Senior Commodities Analyst, Natixis; Thorsten Polleit, Chief Economist, Degussa Goldhandel GmbH; William Adams, Head of Battery and Base Metals Research, Fastmarkets.

In today’s webinar, Nicky Shiels (Head of Metals Strategy, MKS PAMP) lead a panel of experts as they lifted the lid on the 2022 Precious Metals Forecast Survey. On the panel was Bernard Dahdah (Senior Commodities Analyst, Natixis), Thorsten Polleit (Chief Economist, Degussa Goldhandel GmbH) and William Adams (Head of Battery and Base Metals Research, Fastmarkets).

Nicky kicked off the webinar by listing Forecast contributors’ top three influences for gold prices in 2022 as inflation, the Fed and equity market performances. “Geopolitical tensions weren’t deemed an important driver at the time,” she added.

There was a heavy focus on inflation and investor demand as key drivers throughout 2022, with Thorsten noting that “many people underestimate the danger of inflation.” He said he “wouldn’t be surprised to see gold reach $2100 by the end of the year.”

Bernard stated that “when it comes to inflation, it’s more related to the fact that 2021 was a bumper year,” citing the supply shock connected to the COVID-19 lockdown. “Today’s news from Russia probably changes the tempo on how aggressively the Fed will raise rates,” he said. William noted that there are a lot of similarities between now and the early 2000s commodities supercycle, and “we could see a rotation out of equities and bonds (due to rising yields) into gold and wider commodities.”

Nicky asked what we need to see for investors to re-engage with the sector, adding that “aside from the last few weeks, gold hasn’t rallied or proved itself as a reliable inflation hedge.”

The conversation turned to the impact that possible sanctions may have on the supply of palladium, as a result of Russia invading Ukraine.

Watch the full webinar, which included discussion on the electric vehicle market, and a quick-fire questions round on 2022 predictions covering PGMs, inflation, and gold price.

This webinar is CPD Accredited. For more information, please contact events@lbma.org.uk.