November 04, 2021

The Global Macroeconomic Outlook

Richard Quest, Business Correspondent, CNN; Philipp Hildebrand, Vice Chairman, Blackrock; Joachim Nagel, Deputy Head, Banking Department, BIS; Avinash Persaud, Emeritus Professor, Gresham College.

Richard Quest (CNN) took the reins to introduce the panel – Philipp Hildebrand (Blackrock), Joachim Nagel (BIS), and Avinash Persaud (Gresham College) – and examined the drivers behind economic growth.

“When looking at a market price, it’s worth considering where the consensus is likely to get it wrong,” began Avinash. “Supply side recessions tend to be sharp, abrupt, but more short lived than the demand side. Recovery will be stronger and quicker than many expect.”

“We’ve seen a lot of supply chain problems and volatility, but we shouldn’t pay too much attention to it in the very short term,” added Philipp. “But where will it settle? My guess is it’ll settle not too far from the potential growth rates six to eight months from now. The big question will be where inflation settles.”

Joachim said: “We shouldn’t forget that this exceptional phase has been the most challenging issue from a financial markets perspective this century.” When asked whether the inflation we are seeing is transitory, Joachim responded: “This is the one-billion-dollar question – but it looks transitory to me.”

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