January 10, 2024

LBMA Annual Precious Metals Forecast Survey: 2023 Winners Announced

In mid-January 2023, analysts provided forecast predictions for the average price of gold, silver, platinum and palladium in 2023.

Four 1oz gold bars kindly donated by The Perth Mint Australia are the reward for the analyst in each of the four metal categories whose forecast is closest to the actual average price in 2023.

2023 Winning Forecasts and Actuals

Metal Wining Forecast Actual 2023 Average Price Analysts’ 2023 Forecast Average Actual Average Prices in 2022 Actual Average Prices 3-18 Jan inclusive (a)
Gold $1,950 $1,940.54 $1,859 $1,800.09 $1,879.82
Silver $23.30 $23.349 $23.650 $21.730 $23.880
Platinum $988 $964.98 $1,080.40 $960.51 $1,074.33
Palladium $1,550 $1,337.39 $1,809.81 $2,112.06 $1,769.50

(a) Analysts were required to submit their forecasts by Wednesday, 18 January 2023. All prices in the table relate to the LBMA (PM) precious metal prices.

Congratulations to the winning analysts and commiserations to the runners-up.

Details of their forecasts can be found below:

Gold: 2023 Actual Average Price $1,940.54

Just under $10 away from the actual average, Bruce Ikemizu’s forecast of $1,950 was close enough for him to secure first place for gold in 2023. Gold prices averaged $1,940.54 in 2023, some $150 higher than the previous year’s average of $1,800.09. Gold hit an all-time high of $2,078.40 on 28 December (LBMA Gold Price), a peak which underscored the yellow metal’s rise throughout 2023.

In second position was Ross Norman (CEO Metals Daily Ltd) with his forecast of $1,959, followed by Keisuke Okui (Sumitomo Corp) in third, with a forecast of $1,905.

Silver: 2023 Actual Average Price $23.349

Joni Teves was the winner for silver for 2023 with her forecast of $23.30 – a whisper away from the actual average price of $23.349.

The average price forecast by the group of analysts was $23.65, nearly two dollars above the actual average price of silver in 2022 of $21.730.

A close-run contest, second place goes to Kieran Tompkins (Capital Economics) for his forecast of $23.6, and joint third position goes to Robin Bhar (Robin Bhar Metals Consulting (RBMC) and Jonathan Butler (Mitsubishi Corporation) for their matching forecasts of $23.

Platinum: 2023 Actual Average Price $964.98

Marcus Garvey’s forecast of $988.00 – the most bearish of all analysts – secured him first place for platinum, being just $23 away from the actual average price of $964.98.

Considering the highest average forecast of $1,241 for platinum, the actual prices for 2023 highlighted a significant drop compared to analysts’ – and market – expectations. All analysts revealed a more bullish outlook compared to the 2022 average price of $960.51, just $4 lower than the average price in 2023.

Second position goes to Edward Gardner (Capital Economics) for his forecast of $1,000, and third spot to Jacob Smith (Metals Focus) with his $1,020 forecast.

Palladium: 2023 Actual Average Price $1,337.39

Palladium performance in 2023 tells a similar but more exaggerated story to that of platinum, with the actual average price of $1,337.39 falling far short of the analysts’ forecast average of $1,809.81.

We had two analysts forecast the closest average – Alexander Zumpfe and Thorsten Polleit with matching $1,550 forecasts – so the tie break rules were implemented. In the event of a tie, we take into account the analysts' forecast ranges, with the one with the range closest to the actual range during 2023 taking first place. This meant that Alexander pipped Thorsten to the post, as his forecast range of $1,300-$2,100 was closest to the actual range for 2023 of $957-$1,802.

Third spot goes to Jonathan Butler (Mitsubishi Corporation) with his forecast of $1,600.

Want to take part?

LBMA's Public Affairs Committee approves all applications to contribute to the survey, with their decision based on the applicant’s relevant expertise, their forecasting experience and the institution they represent.

We have already reached out to analysts taking part in the 2024 Forecast Survey, which will be published towards the end of this month. If you would like to apply to take part in the 2025 Forecast Survey, please send your details to Shelly Ford, LBMA Digital Content Manager, at shelly.ford@lbma.org.uk.