In mid-January 2021, analysts provided forecast predictions for the average price of gold, silver, platinum and palladium in 2021.
Four 1oz gold bars kindly donated by MKS PAMP GROUP are the reward for the analyst in each of the four metal categories whose forecast is closest to the actual average price in 2021. In the event of a tie, we take into account the analysts' forecast ranges, with the one with the range closest to the actual range during 2021 taking first place.
Congratulations to the winning analysts and commiserations to the runners-up.
| Metal | Winning forecast | Actual 2021 average price | Analysts' 2021 forecast average | Actual Average prices 2020 | Actual average price 4-14 Jan 2021 inclusive (a) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $1,805 | $1,798.6 | $1,973.8 | $1,769.6 | $1,887.5 |
| Silver | $24.9 | $25.14 | $28.5 | $20.55 | $26.36 |
| Platinum | $1,081 | $1,090.2 | $1,131.5 | $882.6 | $1,084.1 |
| Palladium | $2,417 | $2,398.3 | $2,439.1 | $2,192.5 | $2,404.7 |
(a) Analysts were required to submit their forecasts by Thursday, 14 January 2021. All prices in the table relate to PM precious metal prices.
GOLD - 2021 Actual Average Price $1,798.6
Analysts were forecasting the gold price to be $1,973.8, 11.5% up on the average price in 2020, but their average forecast proved bullish, more than $175 above the actual price of $1,798.6. It's not surprising that those analysts adopting a bearish outlook fought to the finish. Caroline Bain, Chief Commodities Economist, Capital Economics snatched the first place prize with her forecast of $1,805, just over $6 shy of the actual price.
Taking second place was Edward Meir (ED&F Capital Markets) with his forecast of $1,815, followed in third by Frank Scallenberger (LBBW) with his forecast of $1,821.
SILVER - 2021 Actual Average Price $25.14
Analysts forecast that the silver price would average $28.5 in 2021, a rather bullish outlook given that the actual price in 2021 turned out more than $3 lower. Taking first place was Peter Fertig, Owner and Director, QCR Quantitative Commodity Research Limited with his forecast of $24.9, just 24 cents off the actual price of $25.14.
The runner up was Jim Steel (HSBC Securities (USA) Inc) with his forecast of $25.5, and in third spot was Ventakraman S (Eventell Global Advisory Pvt Ltd) with $25.65.
PLATINUM - 2021 Actual Average Price $1,090.2
Analysts forecast a bullish outlook for platinum prices in 2021 with an average forecast of $1,131.5 – significantly higher than the actual average price in 2020 of $882.6. Although their forecast was approximately $40 off the actual price of $1,090 they were at least correct in terms of the direction of travel. Taking first place was Suki Cooper, Executive Director, Precious Metals Research Analyst, Standard Chartered with her forecast of $1,081, an impressive forecast which was just $9 off the actual price.
A whisker away in second place was Pearson Mururi (Afriforesight) with his forecast of $1,078 and in third place was Robin Bahr (Robin Bahr Metals Consulting) with his forecast of $1,075.
PALLADIUM - 2021 Actual Average Price $2,398.3
Analysts forecast average prices in 2021 to be $2,439.1 compared to an average price in 2020 of $2,192.5. The actual average price for the year was $2,398.3, so their bullish outlook proved accurate even if somewhat overly optimistic. In first place was Pearson Mururi, Head of Precious Metals and Related Commodities, Afriforesight with his forecast of $2,417.
In second place was Georgette Boele (ABN Amro) with her forecast of $2,437 and taking third spot was Philip Klapwijk (Precious Metals Insights Ltd) with a forecast of $2,440.
1oz Gold Bar Prizes
Congratulations to all the winners who will each receive a 1oz gold bar, kindly donated by MKS PAMP GROUP.
Watch out for analysts' detailed forecasts and commentaries in the 2022 Precious Metals Survey which will be published at the end of January.
For further information please contact:
Aelred Connelly
PR Officer
Aelred.connelly@lbma.org.uk