2023 Precious Metals Forecast Survey

Alexander Zumpfe

Heraeus Metals Germany GmbH & Co. KG

Take a look at the analysts' individual forecasts and commentary, revealing their insights behind their forecasts for highs, lows, and average prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Current price

$1,400 $1,500 $1,600 $1,700 $1,800 $1,900 $2,000 $2,100 $2,200 $2,300
 

Range

$1,750 - $2,050

Average

$1,880

The recent rise in the gold price was aided by the relative weakening of the dollar. With an end to rate hikes by the Federal Reserve now in sight, the dollar could conceivably weaken further, lending further support to the gold price in 2023. A rebound in consumer gold demand is expected in China, owing to the end of COVID restrictions. Evidence of increased economic activity after an initial lull due to an opening wave of infections is supportive of local gold demand.

Top three drivers for the gold price in 2023: monetary policy, weakening dollar, end of zero-COVID in China

— Current price

$10 $14 $18 $22 $26 $30 $34 $38 $42
 

Range

$21 - $28

Average

$24.50

If the reopening of China proves to be permanent in 2023, and the government’s steps to revive the economy are effective, industrial demand for silver could pick up. Photovoltaic demand is forecast to hit record levels in 2023 as installations rise and polysilicon costs fall from record highs last year, reducing module costs. If the dollar weakens further, this could spur strength in the silver price, which often outperforms gold as prices rise. Positive price action may encourage the return of ETF investors, which would be broadly supportive for silver after considerable outflows from funds last year.

— Current price

$700 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400 $1,500
 

Range

$900 - $1,250

Average

$1,075

The platinum market is forecast to be in a moderate surplus in 2023, although year-on-year, this surplus is shrinking. Stock that built up in South Africa in Q4 2022 will be mostly processed in 2023, helping to lift refined production, but this will be more than offset by a rebound in platinum autocatalyst demand, which is partly owing to wider substitution of platinum into gasoline autocatalysts. The strength of the rand will be a crucial driver for the platinum price and, with general dollar weakness expected to persist, should enable further upside for the platinum price.

— Current price

$1,250 $1,450 $1,650 $1,850 $2,050 $2,250 $2,450 $2,650 $2,850
 

Range

$1,300 - $2,100

Average

$1,550

Although recovery from the microchip shortage is forecast to boost light-vehicle production in 2023, automotive demand is anticipated to be slightly lower year-on-year. Steady market share gains by battery electric vehicles (BEVs) plus economic downturns and high interest rates in the US and Europe will constrain palladium demand. The limiting factor for autocatalyst demand could switch from being supply-led to consumer-led. Compounding this, more widespread use of gasoline autocatalysts with some platinum-for-palladium substitution is anticipated. Price risks appear to be to the downside for palladium, given the automotive demand outlook and the palladium market shifting from a deficit to a slight surplus.