2023 Precious Metals Forecast Survey

Bruce Ikemizu

Japan Bullion Market Association

Take a look at the analysts' individual forecasts and commentary, revealing their insights behind their forecasts for highs, lows, and average prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price 2023

$1,400 $1,500 $1,600 $1,700 $1,800 $1,900 $2,000 $2,100 $2,200 $2,300
 

Range

$1,700 - $2,050

Average

$1,950

Although US interest rates are expected to stay above 5% for 2023, gold already has some antibody to higher interest rates. Focus is more on the de-dollarisation from multi-polarisation of the world. More and more central banks will consider gold value over the fiat currencies. If there were dips in the gold price, individual investors of the world both in the West and East would see them as bargain. Thus, the gold price will be supported at the lower prices and could try $2,000s if the Federal Reserve Bank slows down the speed of the interest rate hike.

Top three drivers for the gold price in 2023: de-dollarisation, Federal Reserve Bank’s monetary policy, geopolitical tension

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price 2023

$10 $14 $18 $22 $26 $30 $34 $38 $42
 

Range

$20 - $35

Average

$27

Silver will be supported by the prospect of supply shortage and renewed interest from investors of the world. As for platinum, the move towards a carbon-free society is helping silver demand for solar panels and other applications such as various parts in electric vehicles.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price 2023

$700 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400 $1,500
 

Range

$900 - $1,200

Average

$1,100

Platinum has good chance to attract investors’ interest in 2023. It has good green prospects such as catalyst demand from fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) and also clean hydrogen creation from water electrolysis. The use of platinum as a substitute for palladium and forecasted supply shortage for 2023 also support the platinum price. But above all, the cheapness of platinum in spite of its value would be the biggest appeal to investors. Platinum is still at the deep discount to gold and palladium, which is really attractive for investors who rather feel gold is already too high to invest in. This year, these factors might bring more investors to the metal and that will drive platinum much higher than $1,000.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Average price 2023

$900 $1,100 $1,300 $1,500 $1,700 $1,900 $2,100 $2,300 $2,500 $2,700 $2,900
 

Range

$1,500 - $2,300

Average

$1,700

Palladium is the only one precious metal which seems to be heading south in the long run. The gasoline engine catalyst, which dominates 80% of its demand and substitutions by platinum are getting bigger, and electric vehicles are replacing the internal combustion engine. Palladium could spike with the Russian situation (supply) and Chinese news (demand), but the longer-term trend is quite obvious. Palladium will be lower than platinum in a couple of years.