Debajit Saha

After a 14% year-on-year slump in 2022, we expect the trend to continue, with silver forecast to average $20.75/oz this year, representing a fall of 5% on a year-on-year basis. Rising interest rates in the US will continue to weight on the price. Support is not expected to come from the industrial front either, barring the solar segment, as higher interest rates are set to put a drag on the economic growth. Slowdown in offtake is expected in major physical markets such as India and China. However, we believe the market may remain extremely volatile in the first half of the year, as inflation in the US has remained elevated, while fears of the recession due to rising interest rates may create headwinds, pushing the price to $25.50/oz. In the second half, we expect the economy risks to subside reasonably, which could put sufficient pressure on the price to go below last year’s low.