2023 Precious Metals Forecast Survey

Keisuke Okui

Sumitomo Corp　

Take a look at the analysts' individual forecasts and commentary, revealing their insights behind their forecasts for highs, lows, and average prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium.

— Analyst's average forecast

— Current price

$1,400 $1,500 $1,600 $1,700 $1,800 $1,900 $2,000 $2,100 $2,200 $2,300
 

Range

$1,700 - $2,150

Average

$1,905

Price of gold is expected to gradually rise in 2023 with a support of further purchases from official sectors. As the world is not too much convinced of the stability of the US dollar, non-Western central banks may continue to purchase more gold. Also, gold can be considered a safer asset compared to crypt currencies following the chapter 11 of crypto exchange FTX. Many of the market participants have already factored in the upside of US dollar interest rates for 2023, which is also supportive. There seems to be limited reasons to push gold lower, such as a tapering from the Fed or a sharp further rise in price index which leads to the higher interest rates.

Top three drivers for the gold price in 2023: US dollar interest rate, trust in the US dollar, Chinese/Indian/Russian central banks’ purchases.

— Current price

$10 $14 $18 $22 $26 $30 $34 $38 $42
 

Range

$20 - $30

Average

$25.10

Silver is expected to follow the price of gold on the back of similar reasons, as stated above. This metal is however slightly more positive from both a supply and demand perspective, just like in 2022. From a supply side, as a by-product of zinc and lead, silver production may suffer from disruption as production of zinc and lead themselves may be disrupted due to the increased cost of power, especially in Euro zone. On demand side, silver usage shall continue to grow from photovoltaic (PV), electrification of vehicles and 5G sectors, and these are expected to support the price of silver well.

— Current price

$700 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400 $1,500
 

Range

$850 - $1,350

Average

$1,155

The platinum price has several reasons to rise from the current level. One of them is a possible growth in the hydrogen economy worldwide and another is a disruption of production from the supply side, especially the worsening of power and political issues in South Africa. A negative factor can be recycling. As the price of palladium continues to be kept very attractive, the amount of recycled metal shall continue to expand, which may affect not only the price of palladium but also the price of platinum from time to time.

— Current price

$1,250 $1,450 $1,650 $1,850 $2,050 $2,250 $2,450 $2,650 $2,850
 

Range

$1,400 - $2,800

Average

$2,055

The price of this metal is thoroughly dependent on the recovery of the auto sector towards the end of 2023. As the internal combustion engine (ICE) is still a major part of the industry, the market can easily be affected by the amount of auto production (and number of sales). Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is surely a topic to push the market lower, but the impact shall continue to be limited. Russian production level can be another topic, but as long as Russia continues to be able to prepare/allocate mining machineries on site, it is able to produce as it used to; hence, this factor shall not be too much focused. Just like 2022, or the year before, some price spikes may be seen in 2023 when producers see disruption in either production or timely metal deliveries.